(CNN) — A series of serious allegations against GOP congressmen in key House districts have rattled party insiders this week, fueling Republicans’ anxiety that they could lose seats once considered mostly safe and further endanger their majority.
In the crucial final weeks before the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson and his GOP campaign arm have sought to defuse mounting political crises engulfing the reelection bids of Rep. Max Miller in the suburbs of Cleveland as well as Rep. Chuck Edwards in western North Carolina with mixed results. On Wednesday morning, Edwards announced he would no longer seek re-election after the House Ethics Committee recommended a censure for him and found he acted inappropriately toward two female staffers in his office.
Democrats are still hopeful about the North Carolina seat given the short runway for a brand-new candidate to contest their own nominee, according to multiple sources.
Miller, meanwhile, has defiantly pledged to stay in the race despite concerns from top GOP officials and the president that he may not be able to win in a district Trump won by more than 10 points.
All of this on top of their existing problem in central Florida with embattled Rep. Cory Mills who is still facing a wide-ranging ethics committee probe.
Republican leaders, including Johnson, have so far avoided publicly pressuring Miller to step aside. In an interview with Politico Tuesday, Johnson argued the ethics panel investigation into Miller needed to take its course. But privately, key Republicans have raced to contain damages where they can and have anxiously watched Miller’s effort to publicly defend himself, which they believe is imperiling his re-election even further.
One GOP strategist watching Miller’s interview with CNN anchor Jake Tapper Tuesday afternoon texted, “I mean what the absolute f*** was that.” Another GOP aide on the Hill texted, “I had a feeling this wouldn’t go well for him, but it’s actually much worse than bad. epic disaster.”
Behind the scenes, party leaders worked to convince Edwards he couldn’t win – and privately, party insiders are hoping Mills loses in a primary battle later this month.
So far, the House GOP’s main campaign groups haven’t reserved any airtime to back up any of the incumbents through November, according to AdImpact data. But soon, as Democratic spending grows, Johnson and his team will have to decide whether to send critical cavalry to their embattled incumbents for the sake of their majority – even if it could mean tarnishing their own party’s broader brand.
Democrats, meanwhile, are plotting how to maximize the pain, according to multiple people familiar with internal discussions. While some of their members are eager to quickly force votes to expel Miller from the House, leadership prefers to beat him in November – rather than helping Republicans solve their candidate problems.
Neither of the seats would be easy wins for Democrats. Trump won by double digits in both the Ohio and Florida districts. Yet Democrats insist they have a serious chance of flipping them if Miller stays in and Mills wins his primary.
“These are members who don’t care about representing their communities, they have poor temperament, bad judgment and it really calls into questions if they are fit to serve at all,” Rep. Suzan DelBene, who leads the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a recent interview before Edwards exited the race.
Miller remains defiant
Republicans started out the week with a rapidly escalating crisis in Ohio, as Miller — a long-time Trump loyalist — sought to clear his name by broadcasting live on X Sunday, bringing more attention to allegations that he abused his ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno. While Miller has denied the allegation, the messy family dispute has drawn attention from the president himself.
Trump privately does not believe that Miller can win the race given the accusations, though he did not tell Miller directly to withdraw his name when the two spoke on Monday, CNN has reported.
Some other Republicans — including Sen. Moreno — have called publicly for Miller to exit the race. The House Ethics Committee also said Tuesday it would investigate Miller, a step the congressman had called for, saying it would be a chance to clear his name.
But the congressman was defiant in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on Tuesday, refusing to end his reelection bid.
“People have asked me, what are you going to do? Are you going to drop out of this race? Are you going to resign? Are you going to get out before the deadline? And my answer to you, Jake, is no,” Miller said.
And he claimed that GOP leaders were backing his reelection fight: “Speaker Mike Johnson is standing behind me … No one has told me to get off the ballot. And that’s because they know we can win this seat.”
Separately, Miller told CNN in a statement earlier this week, “I will not validate false claims by removing myself just to please the court of public opinion. I am innocent of all of the allegations that have been attributed to me. I have done well representing my constituent’s interests. Why would I drop out?”
Miller’s Democratic opponent, Brian Poindexter, a local council man and union ironworker, has run on a populist record that’s made him a favorite of both moderate Blue Dogs and the party’s progressive wing.
More recently, he’s made clear that Miller’s actions will be a focus during the campaign.
“If all the allegations against Congressman Miller prove to be true, Max Miller should be in jail, not worried about retaining a seat in Congress,” Poindexter said in a statement to CNN.
Edwards’ ethics woes
Just as GOP leaders were privately scrambling to figure out how best to keep Miller’s suburban Cleveland seat, they learned of a scathing new ethics report that said Edwards had made unwanted advances toward two young women in his office.
Edwards’ campaign disputed the findings and insisted he “did not violate federal sexual harassment law.”
But within hours, House Republican leaders began privately working to convince Edwards to abandon his reelection bid, CNN reported. They feared Edwards put them at risk of losing the seat, especially with the full House expected to vote to formally censure him when lawmakers return from their August recess.
Early Wednesday morning, Edwards announced he would not seek reelection, giving party leaders there an opportunity to now choose a replacement candidate to face off against Democrats’ candidate Jamie Ager, a farmer whose grandfather served in the US House and statehouse, and has been one of Democrats’ standout recruits of the cycle. Ager has been a prolific fundraiser and outraised Edwards nine to one in the most recent quarter.
Ager declined an interview request to talk about Edwards before he dropped out Wednesday.
Mills at risk in primary
A third Republican, Rep. Cory Mills of Florida, has been under a long-time cloud of investigations, including by the House ethics panel.
GOP fears over his electability spiked last year when news broke that Mills was under investigation by DC police for allegedly assaulting an individual. Mills was never arrested and has denied any wrongdoing.
The House Ethics Committee is probing allegations against him, and the panel announced in May that it had “authorized more than 20 subpoenas, collected thousands of documents and contacted dozens of witnesses” as it sought to review allegations Mills “may have violated various rules, laws or other standards of conduct.”
It’s not yet certain that Mills will be on the ballot, either. Privately, some top Republicans are hopeful that Mills will lose his GOP primary on August 18, where he faces former local news anchor Ryan Elijah.
Mills raised just $60,000 last quarter, compared to Elijah’s roughly $300,000. Meanwhile, Democrats’ prized recruit in the race, Navy veteran and former NASA official Bale Dalton, brought in nearly a half-million.
“Each individual has one or three issues that is top of mind. Why would I want someone representing me in Congress who I can’t even talk to my kids about because of the violence against women?” Dalton told CNN in a recent interview.
Mills, for his part, said he fully expected his Democratic opponent to hit him on the ethics investigation, saying his district has “always been a key target.”
“Obviously they’re going to always try and utilize it again. That’s politics right?” Mills said. He said he expected his ethics investigation to conclude “pretty soon” but suggested it may not be the last headache. “You are going to continue to have this political whack a mole. You dispel one thing, another one pops up.”
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