(CNN) — More Americans are falling even further behind on their home and car loans than at any time in the past decade, new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Tuesday.
A greater share of people went at least 30 days late on their mortgage payments in the second quarter of this year than in any quarter since 2015, according to the New York Fed’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. More also went into serious delinquency – or 90 days late or more – on their car payments during the same time period than at any quarter since 2010.
However, the latest data underscored how this is not a one-size-fits-all economy: Most people, by and large, are not letting their debt get too unwieldy.
New York Fed researchers noted that overall delinquency rates are elevated from where they were pre-pandemic, but that they’re holding fairly stable and not deteriorating to where they were during the Great Financial Crisis or its immediate aftermath.
Tuesday’s report is the latest piece in a trove of data that highlights the mixed experiences that people are facing in the American economy.
“You really do have a lot of people who are doing just fine and spending because they feel good, and they’re secure in their jobs,” Matt Schulz, consumer finance analyst for LendingTree, told CNN. “But then you have an awful lot of people who are really struggling and really nervous because of high prices and a challenging job market.”
The jump in auto loan debt is a warning sign, he said, especially with gas prices surging in recent months,
“It’s no surprise that auto loan delinquencies are creeping higher, but it is still concerning,” he said. “People generally don’t stop paying their auto loan until they’re under real financial pressure. For many Americans, their car is what gets them to work and keeps their daily lives moving.”
Tuesday’s report is the latest piece in a trove of data that highlights the mixed experiences that people are facing in today’s economy.
The US economy is growing; unemployment remains low; and the gargantuan interest and investment in artificial intelligence has served as rocket fuel for stocks and wealth for a good share of Americans.
However, the economic expansion masks widening inequities.
Five-plus years of higher-than normal inflation has compounded the cost of living, especially for those who can afford it the least. Job growth has been sluggish for most industries. And after the war in Iran sent gas prices higher, inflation is now fully eating away workers’ paychecks.
New York Fed researchers said Tuesday that the latest quarterly data “still reflects this K-shaped economy” where outcomes of higher-wealth individuals diverge greatly from lower-wealth Americans.
“There are a lot of households who live paycheck to paycheck, and it just needs like one thing to happen to them that could lead to a delinquency,” the researchers said.
Overall US household debt balances edged down by $13 billion, or 0.1%, to $18.8 trillion during the second quarter. However, the decline is largely an artifact of a quirk in how mortgage loans were recorded during the quarter, researchers noted.
Mortgage loan balances’ $74 billion decline during the quarter was attributed to a “servicer transfer gap” of delayed credit reporting when a mortgage is transferred from one servicer to another. This is likely to be reversed next quarter, New York Fed researchers said.
If it wasn’t for those gaps, mortgage balances would have remained flat for the quarter (which would have resulted in overall debt balances increasing by $61 billion, or 0.3%). Outside of mortgages, most balances increased across the major credit categories of home equity, student, auto, credit card and personal.
Higher debt balances – even record-high ones – are to be expected. For one, the New York Fed data is not adjusted for inflation (and we’ve seen faster-than-normal price hikes for five years running). But those balances also can increase because of factors such as population growth, e-commerce activity and economic conditions that help power consumer spending.
For example, there were a record-high $211 billion in new auto loans that appeared on Americans’ credit reports during the second quarter. In tax refund season, people typically buy more cars; however, the prices of those vehicles are higher than ever (and, once again, this data is not adjusted for inflation).
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