Virginia’s population isn’t growing as fast as it used to, and many of its school districts are expected to see a drop in students in the next few years.
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That’s according to new estimates and projections from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service that are based on U.S. Census Bureau data from 2020, as well as information about births, deaths, driver’s licenses and building applications in the Commonwealth.
The research found that between 2020 and 2025, the Commonwealth’s population grew by 0.5% on average each year, down from 0.76% during the 2010s.
A whopping 66% of Virginia’s population growth since 2020 is attributed to people moving in from other parts of the U.S. and other countries.
The metro areas in the Commonwealth that have seen the fastest growth since the start of this decade are Winchester, Richmond and Harrisonburg.
How are things changing for Virginia school districts?
The Cooper Center said the number of students enrolled in K-12 schools has been shrinking since well before the COVID-19 pandemic, but a recent drop was more dramatic than expected.
It found nearly 15,000 fewer students were enrolled in the fall of last year, compared to the same time the year prior. The center had projected a drop of about 6,000 students.
“That marks the largest single-year decline following the pandemic,” Zach Jackson, a senior researcher at the Cooper Center, told WTOP. “That rate of loss suggests that there’s some sort of external factor that drove this sharper-than-expected decline in enrollment.”
Looking ahead, researchers predict K-12 schools in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties will lose a combined total of about 11,000 students by 2030. That would amount to drops of around 5% and 6%.
Enrollment in Charlottesville City Schools is projected to drop by around 12%, or 500 students. Meanwhile, the Albemarle County school system is expected to add students. Enrollment there is projected to increase by 2.5%, or around 350 students, in the next five years.
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