American intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could be increasingly willing to authorize provocative actions that could extend onto NATO territory, U.S. officials briefed on the matter told CBS News.
Those actions could include hybrid operations, cyberattacks and other deniable measures short of a conventional military campaign, the officials said.
The assessments reflect a shift in Putin’s risk calculus compared with just a few months ago, U.S. officials say. The likely goal would not necessarily be to trigger a broader conflict, but to test NATO’s unity and the Trump administration’s willingness to respond to an attack on a NATO ally, according to the officials.
The discovery earlier this week of an explosive-laden drone at an airport in Leipzig, Germany, is assessed by the U.S. to be of Russian origin, officials said.
Officials point to a pattern of other actions that have heightened concerns, including Russian drone incursions into Romania, a Russian missile that crossed into Poland last month and a broader uptick in suspected sabotage, cyber operations and other hybrid tactics across Europe.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European leaders have long argued publicly that Russia is expanding its use of hybrid tactics. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte warned last December, adding Moscow could be ready to use military force against NATO “within five years.”
The U.S. assessments come as Russia continues to absorb enormous losses on the battlefield in Ukraine.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said at a defense forum last month that U.S. intelligence is consistent with public battlefield estimates that newly arrived Russian recruits survive just 20 to 30 minutes before being killed or wounded, largely because of Ukraine’s use of AI-powered attack drones. U.S. officials have said Russia is losing roughly 30,000 troops a month, or between 5,000 and 7,000 a week — losses that are outpacing its recruitment rate.
U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war, meanwhile, have stalled, with no clear path to renewed negotiations.
The CIA declined to comment on the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies, and NATO has not yet responded to a request for comment. CBS News has reached out to the Russian Embassy in Washington for comment.
The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the assessment.
Under Article 5 of the treaty that created NATO, members of the 32-country bloc are expected to come to each other’s defense, treating an attack on any member state as an attack on them all.
President Trump has expressed doubts about that arrangement at times, saying last year there are “numerous definitions of Article 5” and he isn’t sure that NATO member states would come to the defense of the United States if needed. (Article 5 was invoked for the only time in history after the U.S. was targeted by al-Qaeda on Sept. 11, 2001.)
At other points, Mr. Trump has said the U.S. would protect NATO members.
Mr. Trump has lashed out at some NATO member states, accusing some allies of not spending enough on their own defense and criticizing them for not joining the U.S. war with Iran.
His administration has also sought to shift more responsibility for defense to European states, and has weighed pulling thousands of troops from Germany, though the president called off plans to cancel a deployment of troops to Poland earlier this year.