(CNN) — Tariff refunds were a windfall for US businesses in their most recent quarter. But for American consumers, not so much.
Companies’ recent financial disclosures showed hundreds of millions, if not billions, in government payouts starting in May after the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration’s global tariffs were illegal.
Retail giant Walmart revealed this week that it got a $2.9 billion refund, while rival Target got $994 million. Apple got an estimated $2.2 billion. Ford got $1.3 billion. Home Depot got $730 million. Nike got $684 million. Amazon got $640 million.
All told, the government began issuing refunds from the $168 billion collected from 330,000 importers. As of July 31, $100 billion had been sent out, according to a court filing by the US Customs and Border Protection.
But consumers, who often paid higher prices implemented by many businesses to cover the cost of tariffs, will likely see little or no refund money.
There are a variety of reasons for this — from reasonable to infuriating — why those who paid higher prices won’t be getting refunds.
Prices are about more than costs
For one, it’s difficult to determine how much prices paid by consumers went up because tariffs were in place. Cost of goods, including tariffs, is only part of what goes into a pricing decision.
“There are many variables that go into your costs, and your pricing schemes. And demand being obviously the most important one (for pricing),” said Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank.
“Walmart has very advanced pricing algorithms that take a lot of these factors into consideration, and tariffs and tariff refunds are probably not even close to the top of the list,” he said.
However, Walmart executives suggested when reporting earnings that their plans to lower prices were due to the size of the refund. Target executives did the same.
But Walmart executives also reported the slowest sales growthsince the earliest months of the pandemic. And they said consumer spending, including on items other than fuel, has been hurt by gasoline prices being above $4 a gallon.
‘Murky’ where tariff refunds go
It’s very difficult to say what is motivating any price cuts, Ryan said, whether it’s the size of the refund or the need to spur soft sales.
“Walmart sales are massive compared to the $3 billion in tariff refunds,” he said. “They know the customer has no clue if they’re actually passing on the cost or not. It becomes very murky what they’re actually doing with the tariff refund.”
An exception is shipping companies like FedEx and UPS, which collected the tariffs from their customers for overseas shipments. Those companies held their tariff rebates on behalf of those customers and have set up a portal for them to collect their share of the rebates.
But most businesses have trouble identifying how much more a customer paid due to tariffs. Among the companies that announced large refunds, only Amazon said there were “a limited set of circumstances,” in which it “passed specific import charges on to customers.” And it said in those cases it would pass along their share of refunds.
The average US household paid about $1,700 more in 2025 and 2026 due to the cost of tariffs, according to an estimate from Kyle Peacock, principal of Peacock Tariff Consulting, which advises businesses on how to deal with tariff policy. He estimates only about 15% to 20% will be returned to consumers in either refunds or lower prices.
For example, he pointed to Home Depot, which said it would apply the refund money “to offset unplanned and rising cost pressures throughout the year,” including higher energy costs.
“Companies are saying they’re using those tariffs to avoid an increase in prices now due to energy costs or the uncertainty of other tariffs,” said Peacock.
Small businesses’ tariff squeeze
Peacock notes that smaller companies also paid tariffs and are getting refunds due to the Supreme Court decision. Unlike large companies, many smaller business did not have the ability to raise their prices to try to cover the tariff costs due to market conditions.
That was the case for Busy Baby, a Minnesota-based baby products company, which received a refund of $50,000. Owner and founder Beth Benike said the refund did not recoup her losses due to the tariffs.
Benike told CNN on Friday that Busy Baby wasn’t able to raise the price for its silicon placemats, bungees and other products. When it tried, sales dropped quickly.
The company had to eat any tariff costs and take on additional costs due to a change in business plans. Benike ran up $140,000 in charges on credit cards to stay in business and had to cut half her staff and other expenses. The tariff refund will go toward that bill.
In the past year, her business lost half its revenue, its US distribution was scaled back and it cut ties with other small services businesses it had worked closely with for years.
“I’m still in a cost-cutting, finding-every-efficiency, really paycheck-to-paycheck mode,” she told CNN Friday.
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.