(CNN) — The big hurdle for Democrats’ Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.
They needed to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. It wasn’t even clear they could put that many red states in play.
Now, polls increasingly suggest they have put more than enough of those states in play. But other hurdles that complicate their majority math have cropped up — creating an incredibly complex and high-stakes battle to control the Senate come 2027.
The good news for Democrats: Recent, early high-quality polling suggests red states are competitive. The bad news for the party: That might not be sufficient.
States in play
In Texas, a Fox News poll Friday showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 51% among registered voters to state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 48%. It’s merely the latest to show the race close to even.
In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek led by 4 points among registered voters in a Fox poll in late June. And he was neck and neck with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson — 46% to 48% among likely voters — in a New York Times-Siena poll, also in late June.
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown led by 8 points among registered voters in a Fox poll from early June. And he was running close with GOP Sen. Jon Husted — 47% to 50% among likely voters — in a Times-Siena poll from later that month.
And in Alaska, a Times-Siena poll showed Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola within 2 points of GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Polling at this stage can’t be interpreted to predict results, of course, but it suggests that these candidates are doing what they need to do to make those states competitive.
Specifically, the Fox polls show the three Democrats they tested carrying independents by wide margins — including by more than a 2-1 ratio in Talarico’s and Turek’s cases. And both Talarico and Turek were both also carrying at least 23% of non-MAGA Republicans. (The Ohio poll didn’t break out this group.)
Peltola also led 51%-37% among independents and took 8% of Republicans in the Times-Siena poll.
Whether Democrats can actually get over the hump in a state like Texas — where they’ve come close before, but haven’t won a statewide race in more than 30 years — is a big question. But they’ve pretty evidently given themselves a chance to pick off two of those states.
Why it might not be enough
Democrats are suddenly dealing with complications in some friendlier states — namely, Maine and Michigan — and the new x-factor known as Sen. John Fetterman.
In Maine, Democrats were able to rid themselves of their Graham Platner problem. But it’s not yet clear how much better his replacement, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, will ultimately fare under the new spotlight.
A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July put Jackson at 49% to GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ 46% among likely general election voters. But the same pollster once had Platner (prior to his bigger controversies) leading by between 9 and 11 points.
Michigan is Democrats’ more immediate concern, where they’re playing defense to hold onto a seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. There are major concerns among some establishment Democrats that Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed Abdul El-Sayed, who’s facing Rep. Haley Stevens in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, might jeopardize a purple state that Democrats would reasonably expect to win in a favorable year for their party.
(A case in point: Recent polls show Democratic candidates comfortably ahead — by around 10 points — in similarly situated swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.)
But perhaps the most unwelcome variable in this majority math might be Fetterman. The Pennsylvania senator, who has demonstrated a penchant for siding with Republicans and giving his party fits in recent months, has also increasingly flirted with switching parties.
Back in May, Fetterman wrote that he had “no plans to leave” the Democratic Party. But a couple weeks ago, he amended that posture by saying he would leave it if it adopts an anti-Israel posture — a topic causing significant strife within the party.
Democrats have been trending more against Israel, reflecting the views of their base, though it isn’t an “official” position, as Fetterman laid out. Still, given huge pressure from that base, the real question is how stringent a litmus test this is for the Pennsylvania senator.
That means Democrats could go into the November general election not even knowing how many seats they need to win. Do they need to flip four seats, including two red ones that Trump carried by significant margins, as they’d previously thought? Or do they need to actually win five and three, respectively?
Democrats clearly have the fundamentals on their side, and it’s looking like the environment is conducive to them winning where they need to. Just like in the red states, polls show their candidates in Georgia and North Carolina have big leads among independents and are taking significant numbers of non-MAGA Republicans.
But it’s also looking like it might not be red states that ultimately decide the fate of the Senate.
The-CNN-Wire
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