(CNN) — Pressure is growing on Rep. Max Miller to end his reelection campaign amid an ugly series of allegations from the Ohio congressman’s ex-wife.
But new developments concerning another GOP congressman underscore how dicey the political situation is becoming for Republicans clinging to a narrow House majority — and how fine a line they might need to walk in the weeks to come.
Miller, North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards and Florida Rep. Cory Mills are all facing concerning accusations (they all deny wrongdoing). All three represent districts President Donald Trump won by around 10 points in 2024 — in other words, districts they could lose, especially if it’s a bad year for Republicans nationally.
But while the GOP might want these lawmakers to end their campaigns, they would probably prefer they don’t resign, given how tight the party’s 218-212 majority is in the House.
Still, the nature of the allegations — and the growing set of them — could make the pressure to resign tough to avoid, particularly if the accusations risk feeding an unhelpful narrative for the GOP heading into the fall.
In addition to the growing Miller fallout, the big news Monday was that the House Ethics Committee released a report about Edwards, in which it recommended the House censure him — the first time since 2010 the panel recommended that for one of its members.
The bipartisan committee found “substantial evidence” that Edwards had made unwanted advances toward two young female staffers, including by showering them with gifts and unwanted attention.
Mills also faces a lingering ethics investigation related, in part, to allegations of assaulting a woman and threatening to disseminate sexually explicit videos and images of another woman. While the story has faded from national headlines, it may get more attention thanks to the Miller and Edwards situations.
All three lawmakers are so far standing their ground, with Miller — who says he won’t drop his reelection bid — even saying Tuesday he’s taking the unusual step of asking the House Ethics Committee to investigate him in an effort to clear his name. The Ohio congressman says his ex-wife (who is the daughter of Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, who recently said Miller “should not serve” in Congress) made up the abuse claims that he denies.
GOP leaders have been split on how to handle the allegations with Miller, with some calling for him to end his campaign but others steering clear of the situation. Trump declined to pass judgment Monday and even praised Miller as a person, but appears to be privately hinting that Miller might need to drop out.
Edwards, meanwhile, emphasized that Monday’s ethics report did not find he engaged in sexual activity with or directly propositioned the aides. And Mills has claimed the allegations against him are politically motivated.
But as Republicans confront what looks to be a pretty tough midterm election, there is increasing worry that the allegations against these lawmakers will jeopardize their seats.
“(The districts) wouldn’t be vulnerable for Republicans in a normal year,” David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said Monday on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront.” “But these are not normal circumstances, and this is not a normal year. President Trump’s approval rating in all three seats is underwater.”
History backs up the notion that these seats could be in play.
Two GOP congressmen, then-Reps. Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California, were indicted in August 2018.
Both won that November, but Collins won by less than 1 point in a district Trump had carried by 25 points in 2016. And Hunter won by just 4 points in a district Trump had carried by 15 points.
In 2006, Pennsylvania GOP then-Rep. Don Sherwood ran for reelection after reaching a settlement with a former mistress who accused him of assault. He wound up losing by 6 points, despite running in a district George W. Bush had carried by 20 points in 2004.
All of those results suggest districts like Miller’s, Edwards’ and Mills’ could be vulnerable under certain circumstances.
The problem for Republicans is that while it might be preferable for these lawmakers to bow out of their reelection campaigns, the fact that there are three of them means the party might not want them to resign right now. Resigning, after all, could shrink a majority that’s already so small it’s caused frequent headaches for leadership trying to enact Trump’s agenda.
Some in the party resisted calling for the expulsion of Rep. George Santos of New York in 2023 and the resignation of Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas earlier this year for precisely that reason.
Gonzales, who had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide, eventually resigned in April in the face of his own expulsion threat. But Republicans only seemed to embrace expulsion after Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s resignation for alleged sexual assault meant both parties were losing a seat. Perhaps further illustrating Republicans’ hesitance over their dwindling numbers, Mills avoided the same type of removal pressure at the time, despite the public accusations against him.
Given the Gonzales and Swalwell precedents, it would seem difficult for Republicans to tell these lawmakers to drop their campaigns but not exit Congress. Why would the allegations against Miller, for example, be bad enough to end his campaign but still allow him to keep serving?
And if the party decides Miller needs to be pushed out, it would likely face questions about what’s different about Mills and Edwards. GOP leaders already walked this tightrope once on Mills, but no party trying to defend its majority wants to be spending time answering questions about the differences between the allegations and why one situation rises to that level, but another doesn’t.
Republicans also have to contend with the things they said very recently when Swalwell and Democratic Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner were accused of sexual assault. (Both men have repeatedly denied the accusations.)
In the case of Platner, Republicans pilloried Democrats for failing to call for Platner’s exit amid a series of personal accusations before the allegation of sexual assault. (Democrats quickly pushed out Platner after the rape allegation that he denies.)
And when Swalwell and Gonzales resigned, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said both had made the right decision.
“My views have been made known about the terrible allegations that were made and obviously the facts that they both admitted to and I believe it was the appropriate thing,” Johnson told CNN.
Indeed, allegations of a sexual misconduct or abuse have often been treated more seriously and urgently in these circumstances.
And now Republicans need to figure out how to treat them in a hurry.
The-CNN-Wire
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