(CNN) — The Iran war has apparently entered a new phase.
After more than three months of attempts to hold together an exceedingly brittle and confusing pair of ceasefires, President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that the truce was ending.
Then he said it more firmly Friday.
The US has agreed to continue talks, Trump wrote on social media, but added that Iran had been informed, “in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”
So what does this mean? And where does it leave the United States — both with the war effort and the politics that surround it?
Here are some key points and questions.
It’s not clear what Trump means
As with many of the president’s pronouncements, it’s not clear how lasting the sentiment will be. As of Friday morning, there’s been a lull in strikes, so it’s not as if full-scale war has returned.
Trump’s statement that talks will continue would also seem to suggest he really doesn’t want it to resume and is still fixated on an elusive peace deal.
He also this week resurrected his threats to target key Iranian civilian infrastructure, which would quite possibly be a war crime.
So it’s possible saying the ceasefire is over is more of a warning than anything else — the latest attempt by Trump to threaten Iran into submission and to cut an acceptable deal.
Of course, that hasn’t really worked before. So why would it now?
But an end to the ceasefire would leave difficult choices
But if Trump is to be taken at face value, this would seem to be a pivot point featuring some difficult choices.
For one, does the United States go back to full-scale war in hopes of extracting something significant from Iran?
That seems to be the alternative to the ceasefire, judging by Trump’s and the administration’s past rhetoric. But the president also said Wednesday that “I don’t think it’s going to start again” — referring to large-scale war — and added, “We’re not looking for long term.”
Trump has also appeared to lay the groundwork this week for arguing that the war has already succeeded in denuclearizing Iran, even without getting its nuclear material or a long-term nuclear deal. That sounds somewhat like a guy who’s just ready to be done with it all.
For another, does the United States reinstitute its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?
The reason the ceasefire crumbled in recent days was that Iran kept striking vessels in the area. The administration has argued the blockade gave the US significant leverage over the situation by applying major pressure on Iran’s economy. So if Tehran isn’t abiding by its promises from the memorandum of understanding to fully reopen the strait, one would think the US would want to reinstitute the blockade it had used as a countermeasure. But so far, there’s no sign of that.
Which leads to the big one: What else does the US do about the strait?
It’s pretty clear that a major reason for the ceasefire’s shakiness is Iran’s reluctance to give up its trump card: control of the strait. The war has proven Iran’s ability to inflict major damage on the world economy by threatening vessels that move through the strait, which, it’s worth remembering, was open before Trump started the war. That leverage is a huge problem for the US and its Gulf allies — not just in this war but for the foreseeable future in the Middle East.
It’s looking more and more like negotiations won’t resolve this, but it’s perhaps the one issue that needs to be resolved, somehow.
Trump’s move could trigger a War Powers problem
Beyond the difficult decisions in the Middle East are what this means, legally speaking, at home.
A true end to the ceasefire would seem to trigger questions about whether the administration must now get authorization from Congress for the war.
The War Powers Act states that Congress needs to declare war or authorize the use of military force within 60 days of hostilities starting — or 90 days if the president seeks an extension.
The administration has skirted this requirement by claiming that the war was actually “terminated” when the first ceasefire began on April 7 — even though the military was still stationed in the region and has occasionally carried out retaliatory strikes.
So now that the ceasefire is apparently over and the 90-day window passed in late May, does the administration now have to seek authorization? Logic would suggest it does.
Unless the administration is going to argue that the clock now goes back to where it was on April 7 — or that the US is in a new war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth once said in congressional testimony that the clock was effectively paused during the ceasefire.
Either way, though, Trump’s decision should trigger a real debate about what war powers he should even have right now.
Republicans are on the spot again
That said, there’s not a great way to enforce the War Powers Act unless enough congressional Republicans decide to. They’re the ones who could provide the votes to end the war, via war powers resolutions and other measures.
Both the House and Senate have voted narrowly to end the war (though the Senate later reversed itself). And it’s been clear that some Republicans are losing patience with the conflict, given it increasingly threatens their political prospects in the 2026 midterm elections.
The question now would seem to be whether the end of the ceasefire might tempt enough of them to either 1) push for Trump to go back to full-scale war in hopes that might achieve an actual victory or 2) decide to try to end the war.
When the Senate reversed itself after rebuking Trump last month, it did so thanks to two GOP critics who decided to give Trump some room to operate. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy set aside his major concerns about the war and Trump’s negotiations after getting a White House briefing, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul cited how “hostilities seem to be over and the president asked me to give consideration to his negotiating position.”
Given the negotiations don’t seem to be working and the ceasefire is over (according to Trump), does Paul go back to voting against Trump’s authority? Does Cassidy — who’s already been defeated by a Trump-backed primary challenger — lose patience, too?
Similar questions loom over other Republicans who might worry about where this war is going and how much it could cost them in November.
And with Trump looking like he has no good options — or even much of a plan — they might start to feel the need to do something they’ve avoided like the plague throughout the last 18 months: actually assert their power over him.
The-CNN-Wire
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