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Trump impone un arancel del 50 % a Canadá y envía una advertencia al resto del mundo

By CNN

El presidente Donald Trump anunció este lunes un arancel del 50 % a las importaciones procedentes de Canadá, uno de los gravámenes más altos que entrará en vigor desde que la Corte Suprema anuló a principios de este año sus aranceles más amplios.

El Gobierno presentó la medida como una respuesta a lo que considera las históricas barreras comerciales de Canadá. Pero la decisión también envía un mensaje a los demás socios comerciales de EE.UU.: podrían ser los siguientes.

Desde que la Corte Suprema bloqueó la amplia autoridad de Trump para imponer aranceles, muchos gobiernos y empresas creían que el riesgo de enfrentar nuevos gravámenes había disminuido. Ahora, sin embargo, Trump da señales de que podría haber encontrado una forma de reactivarlos.

Trump se apoya en una ley comercial de 1930 que otorga al presidente la facultad de imponer aranceles de hasta el 50 % cuando otro país discrimina los productos estadounidenses. Sin embargo, como esa ley nunca se ha utilizado para imponer aranceles, la medida podría enfrentar impugnaciones judiciales.

El representante Comercial de EE.UU., Jamieson Greer, dijo este martes que estos aranceles responden a la decisión de Canadá de tomar represalias contra gravámenes estadounidenses anteriores, una medida que, según él, solo había adoptado China.

“Tenemos un arancel que es, nuevamente, una consecuencia natural de las represalias de Canadá”, dijo Greer en una entrevista matutina con CNBC.

Ese argumento podría tener implicaciones mucho más allá de Canadá. Si el Gobierno puede definir de manera amplia qué constituye una discriminación contra los productos estadounidenses, tendría una nueva vía legal para justificar aranceles elevados contra países cuyas políticas —comerciales o de otro tipo— considere inaceptables.

Eso es precisamente lo que hizo el Gobierno anteriormente, hasta que la Corte Suprema determinó que no podía imponer aranceles más altos amparándose en supuestos poderes de emergencia económica.

Ahora, el Gobierno podría estar poniendo a prueba si la ley de 1930 “podría utilizarse para imponer aranceles a otros países en el futuro”, escribió este lunes Stephen Brown, economista jefe de Capital Economics. Expertos en comercio del Cato Institute ya habían advertido que ese estatuto podría ser “susceptible de abuso por parte de un Gobierno proteccionista”.

“Otros países seguirán teniendo que tomarse en serio este tipo de amenazas”, dijo Greg Husisian, abogado especializado en comercio del bufete Foley & Lardner. “Esto confirma que el presidente Trump seguirá utilizando la amenaza de los aranceles para alcanzar objetivos de política exterior durante el resto de su presidencia”.

La más reciente amenaza de Trump también rompe con la práctica reciente, ya que los bienes que cumplen con el Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC) han estado, en su mayoría, protegidos de nuevos aranceles. Para otros países, esto podría significar que sus acuerdos comerciales vigentes también podrían dejarse de lado con la misma facilidad.

En última instancia, lo que está en juego va más allá de las negociaciones comerciales y las batallas judiciales. Si estos aranceles entran en vigor el 19 de agosto, como está previsto, los estadounidenses podrían volver a sentir el impacto en forma de precios más altos, en un momento en que muchos ya enfrentan el aumento de los costos de la energía y de otros productos básicos de uso cotidiano.

The-CNN-Wire
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In record heat, a warming world has come to rely on China to stay cool

By CNN
Hong Kong (CNN) — With wildfires blazing and temperatures hitting record highs in Europe, one China-made product has never been hotter: air-conditioners.Europeans, who have been slower to adopt AC than those living in other parts of the world, are lining up outside stores and driving long distances in the hopes of securing an AC unit as blistering summer temperatures in some areas surge past 100 degrees Fahrenheit.Major Chinese brands Midea, Gree and Haier are reporting AC higher sales overseas, just as leaders in countries such as France, Germany and Belgium are threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, which they say are damaging their own industries.While air conditioning accounts for a small portion of Chinese exports to the EU, China has seized on the surge in sales as evidence that European consumers need Chinese products.A column recently published by the official state-run news agency Xinhua criticized European policymakers for ignoring the needs of consumers, titled: “The air conditioner paradox: Europe is too hot for tariffs on China.”“Blocking Chinese ACs won’t fix Europe’s problems –– it will only make life harder for ordinary people,” the author of the op-ed wrote.The EU and China will hold discussions over the next few months to address the record trade imbalance of nearly 360 billion euros, or about $406 billion, as of last year. The gap has widened in recent years as China has ramped up exports, particularly of electric and hybrid cars that threaten to displace Europe’s biggest auto brands.“It makes trade negotiations extremely difficult,” said Cameron Johnson, a supply chain expert and senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, a Shanghai-based consultancy.“If you’re a government, you cannot tell people, ‘Sorry, you can’t have air conditioning because we don’t want Chinese overcapacity.’”‘Too hot for tariffs’Other parts of the world have come to rely on China for air conditioning as well. In the US, where “heat domes” have led to extreme heat warnings in the south and central regions, Chinese brands account for 50% of the market, according to Euromonitor International, a market intelligence company. Globally, that figure reached 65% last year, the firm said.Veronika Kandusova, global insight manager for consumer appliances at Euromonitor International, expects that proportion to increase alongside global temperatures. Chinese brands were able to capitalize on high demand this year, especially in Europe, thanks to flexible supply chains that can rapidly develop new, localized products.European consumers have lagged behind the rest of the world in adopting AC, due to high energy costs, expensive installation fees and restrictions on retrofitting the continent’s older buildings. In the past, summers have not been hot enough to justify the trouble for most homes.The climate crisis is now changing that.Midea Group, one of China’s largest home appliance brands, designed its PortaSplitAC unit specifically for Europe by making it portable, quiet and low enough to keep from blocking European windows. The model has sold more than 200,000 units this year, doubling year-on-year, the company said.“European home appliance markets, long dominated by Bosch, Electrolux, Miele, and other established Western brands by default, are opening competitive gaps that Chinese companies are structurally positioned to fill,” the research firm EqualOcean wrote in a blog post last month. “Midea’s PortaSplit is the product that crystallizes the shift.”Those advantages translate to many other industries that could give China more sway in global trade, said Johnson of Tidalwave Solutions.“This is just the beginning,” he said. “As inflation starts to gain hold in Europe and in the States, people don’t want to pay more for products. So what do you do? Well, you have to have some Chinese stuff.”Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said that European countries are more focused on addressing specific strategic segments and Chinese industrial policies than broadly inhibiting Chinese imports.“The EU is neither looking for complete balance — in the sense that every euro of goods imported must correspond to a euro of goods exported — nor to reduce its reliance on China for more widely available household appliances,” he said.Seeking hotter marketsChina also needs new markets like Europe. Facing a housing slump and declining consumption at home, China has ramped up exports to other nations to buttress slowing economic growth. China ended last year with a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.Even with rising exports, China’s reported second-quarter GDP was the lowest in more than three years.Much of China’s recent export strength is driven by high-tech goods like batteries, electric cars and solar. These have become known as the “new three” categories for export growth, as the “old three” –– clothing, furniture, and home appliances –– have tapered.As its summers grow hotter, Europe offers Chinese appliance makers a potential renaissance.Europe has the world’s lowest penetration rates for air conditioning, said Denis Depoux, global managing director at the consultancy Roland Berger, averaging about 20%. That’s compared to 90% penetration in the US, where Chinese exports would also face tariffs.“Europe is the prize,” he said. “If I am a Chinese manufacturer of air conditioning units, Europe is a very attractive market. It’s growing demand, it’s new, it’s affluent, margins are higher.”According to Chinese media, some regions like China’s eastern Shandong province have received government support to boost manufacturing of cooling products and other home appliances this year.Korean and Japanese appliance makers are also benefiting from booming European demand. Meanwhile, University of Michigan economics professor Chris Douglas argued in an op-ed this month that the state of Michigan should manufacture air conditioners for Europe.However, the seasonal nature of cooling demand will limit market opportunities as temperatures eventually ease.“In two months people will have forgotten that air conditioning was needed during the summer, but it will come again,” Depoux said. “Is it a meaningful, sustainable opportunity? I’m not so sure.”One sourcing agent in China was already encouraging retailers to stock up for next year, in a marketing video published to WeChat, China’s popular social messaging app, titled, “Europe’s AC Gold Rush! Print Cash From The Heatwave.”“Secure your market position before the 2027 madness begins,” she said, twirling and pointing to a room full of portable fans and coolers.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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