TROPICAL STORM BERTHA THREATENS GULF COAST (4AMET)
(CNN) — Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move slowly in the northeastern Gulf, where it is expected to bring periods of rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana.
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Bertha may have earned a name, but it still isn’t a well-organized tropical storm. All of its thunderstorms remain confined to its southern half because unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air continue to disrupt development despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water.
This lopsided structure will keep much of Bertha’s heaviest rain and strongest winds offshore as it crawls closer to the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
The storm is already hurling some bands of rain and rough surf into the coast, and gusty winds are expected to pick up late Tuesday into the overnight hours.
Bertha’s moisture will also help fuel a flooding rain threat hundreds of miles away in the Southeast. A stalling cold front in the region will pull its moisture up from the Gulf Wednesday through the end of the week, especially over the Carolinas.
Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has gotten off to a slow start compared to recent years as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season because of it.
Storm track, intensity
Bertha will most likely track along the Gulf Coast and make landfall or graze the coast of southeast Louisiana by late Wednesday night as a weak tropical storm.
Bertha is then forecast to track toward the Upper Texas Coast while weakening to a tropical depression later this week, but it might not make it that far west. The storm-killing wind shear Bertha is battling now could cause it to dissipate sooner near the Louisiana coast.
Wind shear is the change in speed or direction of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that literally shears, or rips, storms apart. It’s also the reason most of Bertha’s thunderstorms are south of its center.
Land interaction with the Gulf Coast will eventually pile onto the hostile conditions by depriving Bertha of the warm, moist ocean conditions that are fueling its thunderstorms.
Impacts expected on Gulf Coast
Regardless of the system’s fate, bands of rain, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal Alabama, Mississippi and far eastern Louisiana. In these areas, tropical storm conditions — sustained 39+ mph winds — are expected within the next 36 hours. Tropical storms watches are in effect to the west and east of those warnings, from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
Here’s what to expect:
• Rainfall: Totals of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.
• Wind: Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coasts late Tuesday into Wednesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.
• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, especially with the Wednesday and Thursday morning high tides. A storm surge watch is in effect for this area, which means life-threatening inundation of ocean water is possible in the next 48 hours.
• Dangerous beach conditions: Rough surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact beaches from the Florida Panhandle westward to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana through at least Thursday. These are life-threatening conditions for even the strongest swimmers.
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