TROPICAL STORM BERTHA THREATENS GULF COAST (4AMET)
(CNN) — Tropical Storm Bertha is inching towards the central Gulf Coast and is expected to bring periods of rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding from Florida to Louisiana.
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Bertha’s maximum sustained winds were 50 mph as of early Wednesday morning, down 10 mph from Tuesday evening. The storm is expected to gradually weaken over the next several days.
Bertha isn’t a well-organized tropical storm. Despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water, most of its thunderstorms remain confined to its southern half, thanks to dry air and high-altitude winds ripping storms apart as they form in its top half.
This lopsided structure will keep much of Bertha’s heaviest rain and strongest winds offshore as it crawls westward along the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
Still, tropical storm conditions spread into the immediate coast of the Florida Panhandle Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm is also hurling bands of rain and rough surf into parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
Bertha’s moisture will also help fuel a flooding rain threat hundreds of miles away in the Southeast. A stalling cold front in the region will pull its moisture up from the Gulf Wednesday through the end of the week, especially over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has gotten off to a slow start compared to recent years as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season because of it.
Storm track, intensity
Bertha will most likely track along the Gulf Coast and make landfall or graze the coast of southeast Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon as a weak tropical storm.
Bertha is then forecast to track toward the Upper Texas Coast while weakening to a tropical depression later this week, but it might not make it that far west. The storm-killing wind shear Bertha is battling now could cause it to dissipate sooner near the Louisiana coast.
Wind shear is the change in speed or direction of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that literally shears, or rips, storms apart. It’s also the reason most of Bertha’s thunderstorms are south of its center.
Land interaction with the Gulf Coast will eventually pile onto the hostile conditions by depriving Bertha of the warm, moist ocean conditions that are fueling its thunderstorms.
Impacts expected on Gulf Coast
Regardless of the system’s fate, bands of rain, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the western Florida Panhandle, coastal Alabama, Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana — including New Orleans. In these areas, tropical storm conditions — sustained 39+ mph winds — are expected within the next 36 hours. Tropical storm watches are in effect as far west as south-central Louisiana.
Here’s what to expect:
• Rainfall: Totals of 1 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.
• Wind: Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coasts late Tuesday into Wednesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.
• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, especially with the Wednesday and Thursday morning high tides. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, where moderate coastal flooding is possible in low-lying areas.
• Dangerous beach conditions: Rough surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact beaches from the Florida Panhandle westward to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana through at least Thursday. These are life-threatening conditions for even the strongest swimmers.
Bertha to raise Mid-Atlantic flood threat
The storm system that on Tuesday caused historic flooding in West Virginia and wreaked havoc from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast will linger across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, but the flood threat in the region will stretch into the weekend.
Stalled storms will feed off of ample tropical moisture streaming in from Tropical Storm Bertha, raising the risk of repeated rounds of heavy rain, particularly near the Virginia/North Carolina border.
A level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rain is in place for a section of the Virginia/North Carolina border into Friday. A Level 2 of 4 risk covers much of the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian region and parts of the Southeast.
The Level 3 risk area could see up to 6 inches of rain, with greater amounts possible in localized areas where storms stall. A more widespread area will receive between 2 and 4 inches.
The-CNN-Wire
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