Skip to main content

The GOP’s 2026 Trump problem, in 2 charts

By CNN

(CNN) — There has been plenty in President Donald Trump’s second term that’s proven politically unpopular.

But when it comes to what’s most significant for the upcoming midterm elections — and most problematic for Republicans trying to defend their congressional majorities — two charts tell the tale as well as anything.

Both feature a remarkably steady decline for Trump’s fortunes. And both now show him worse off than ever before.

The latest numbers come from new polling from CBS News and YouGov, which have frequently polled views of Trump’s handling of the economy over the last 18 months.

They also come as Trump headed to Michigan, a key battleground state, on Monday to promote his economic agenda.

Trump’s neglect on inflation

Early in Trump’s second term, the percentage of Americans who said the administration wasn’t focused enough on lowering prices was already high.

Back then, it hovered in the mid-60s, when the president seemed more focused on tariffs than kitchen table issues and inflation.

But the percentage of Americans who think the administration is not focused enough on lowering prices has risen steadily since then. And now, in the first poll asking the question since the start of the Iran war in late February, it’s up to 78%.

Just to underscore, that’s nearly 8 in 10 Americans who say the Trump administration has neglected what might well be the single most important issue to voters. It often seems difficult to get 7 in 10 Americans to agree on much of anything politically, but this is an even larger majority than that.

The percentage who say the administration hasn’t focused enough on this issue also includes 85% of independents and even a clear majority of Republicans (58%).

All three findings are new highs for Trump’s second term.

The poll question didn’t focus on Trump himself — it just asked about the administration — so maybe respondents had unnamed bureaucrats in mind rather than the president himself.

But this is a reflection of Trump’s presidency. And what’s most stunning is how steady it’s been. Trump hasn’t been able to do anything to temporarily juice the numbers in his favor. It’s a negative trajectory, with no end in sight.

The ‘financially worse off’ number

Ronald Reagan famously asked during his 1980 campaign against then-President Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

When it comes to Trump’s stewardship of the economy over the past 18 months, the answer to that question is not an encouraging one for Trump and the GOP.

The CBS poll has regularly asked whether Americans felt Trump’s policies were making them “financially better off” or “worse off.” And as with the first chart above, things have gone from bad to worse.

While 42% of Americans said Trump was making them financially worse off back in March 2025 — before Trump’s global tariffs were announced — that number has steadily climbed to 58% today.

Over the same span, the percentage saying Trump’s policies have made them better off has dropped from 23% to 13%.

So Trump has gone from 19 points underwater to 45 points underwater on that question.

What should sting more for Trump is that this was arguably one of the main reasons he was elected. Even as Americans had reservations about his personal character, they generally saw him as preferable on dealing with the economy.

In fact, CBS polling on the eve of the 2024 election showed 44% of registered voters expected Trump’s policies to make them better off. That was significantly more than the 30% who said the same of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

But today, just 13% of Americans say Trump has accomplished that.

And to be clear, this isn’t just Americans saying they’ve become worse off; they’re saying that and blaming Trump’s policies for it.

That was the danger of Trump effectively taking full ownership of the economy via his tariffs and the Iran war. And as the 2026 midterms get closer, there is no sign that either of these trends will get any better for the GOP.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

Kevin Warsh can’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz

By CNN
New York (CNN) — The public is fed up with the high cost of living, and the Federal Reserve is once again under pressure to act.Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chairman, has vowed to get inflation back to 2%. Some investors suspect the Warsh-led Fed will show it’s serious about that pledge by raising rates as soon as Wednesday.And yet: As powerful as the Fed is, its inflation-fighting tools are limited when it comes to combating the supply-driven inflation America is facing now. The Fed can’t conjure a durable ceasefire in the war with Iran, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, nor disappear President Donald Trump’s high and volatile tariffs.“Rate hikes won’t keep the bombs from dropping,” said Benson Durham, a former Fed official and founder of DASM LLC, an independent research firm.Supply trouble causing inflationThe Fed mostly put out the post-Covid inflation fire by spiking interest rates starting in 2022. Those rate hikes were aimed at cooling overheated demand, giving supply a chance to catch up.But today’s inflation is different.First, it’s not as severe. Inflation is hovering at about 3.5%, above the 2% target but a far cry from the 9.1% inflation of mid-2022.Second, today’s economy is not overheating with gangbusters demand. Hiring is weak. Wage growth has cooled, barely keeping up with prices.Instead of red-hot demand, inflation is mostly being driven by supply problems that are making so many things more expensive: The war with Iran has derailed the flow of energy from the Middle East, lifting prices on diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. High tariffs have also driven up the cost of some goods, though not by as much as many feared.“Monetary policy 101 says when there is a supply shock, don’t respond. Follow the script. It’s worked pretty well,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in a phone interview. “Bottom line: I don’t think they should raise rates.”‘Dangerous game to play’Zandi warned that raising rates to cool demand could tip over the stock market, which could take down the shaky job market.“That’s a dangerous game to play. The labor market is weak and it wouldn’t take a lot to push us into a recession,” Zandi said.Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen argued last month that the “default strategy” for the Fed should be “looking through supply shocks,” instead of being tempted into rate hikes.“Monetary policy cannot tame supply-driven inflation without exacting unacceptable unemployment costs,” Yellen said at a Brookings event.The exception, according to Yellen, would be if inflation expectations skyrocket. That matters because if the public and investors start to doubt inflation will get back to normal, workers would likely demand major wage hikes and companies would preemptively raise prices. It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.But economists say inflation expectations, especially market-based measures, are not near the danger zone.Moody’s estimates that about 0.66 percentage points of forecasted inflation at the end of this year will be due to the Iran war. Another 0.17 percentage points comes from tariffs and trade restrictions, and a smaller amount from restrictive immigration policy.“None of those things will be solved by higher rates,” said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research.Goldman Sachs economists concluded in a recent report that there is “little reason to think” limited rate hikes would “provide much help in bringing inflation down.”AI is lifting prices, tooHowever, demand is playing a role when it comes to the artificial intelligence boom, which has driven up prices for memory and other components. Moody’s estimates AI will boost inflation by about a quarter of a percentage point, in no small part thanks to the massive amount of resources being poured into the infrastructure it needs.Apple recently sharply lifted prices on the MacBook, iPad and other products, blaming “an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage” linked to the data center buildout as companies rush into the AI market.Given the gobs of money pouring into AI, Zandi doubts Warsh & Co. can dramatically impact that trend by simply raising rates a few times.“That train has left the station and is barreling down the tracks. It won’t be stopped by a rate hike or two,” Zandi said.Warsh keeps Wall Street guessingEven though the Fed decision is just a day away, there is an unusual amount of drama over what officials will do with rates.Normally, Fed officials drop enough hints during speeches and interviews that Wall Street has a pretty good sense for what will happen. But today there is a real debate, with the market pricing in a 38% chance of a hike and a 62% chance of no change, according to CME FedWatch.The suspense is driven in part by Warsh’s refusal to telegraph what the Fed is likely to do. Warsh has argued that so-called forward guidance is unhelpful, handcuffing officials to forecasts that often fail to become reality.David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, doesn’t think inflation today is “sticky” enough to warrant Fed action.“This is Teflon inflation. It won’t stick. It’ll just slide away, slowly,” Kelly said.That doesn’t mean prices will revert to the pre-Covid levels that many in the public crave. It would just mean a return to more subtle price hikes, ones that consumers can absorb with fatter paychecks.“The only way to get prices back down is to cause a recession,” Kelly said. “Affordability can only be achieved by raising income, not lowering prices.”The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Read Next Story

Related Stories

Latest News
Behind a haze of smoke, dreamlike portraits of queer Muslim life
5 minutes ago

Behind a haze of smoke, dreamlike portraits of queer Muslim life

‘He’s irreplaceable’: How Lindsey Graham made an indelible mark on foreign policy and Trump

Strong 7.1 magnitude earthquake strikes southern Japan; tsunami alert issued

Judge expected to sentence Georgia school shooter Colt Gray Tuesday after hearing reveals clues about possible motive

Bryan Kohberger wants out of his plea deal. Here’s what experts say about his chances