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Signs of El Niño are already appearing in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Bertha is more proof

By CNN

(CNN) — Atlantic hurricane season is off to a quiet start and it’s probably time to start pointing fingers at El Niño.

A quick refresher: El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and corresponding shifts in upper atmosphere weather patterns. Together, these factors influence weather globally over extended periods.

This El Niño was officially declared in June, and it could become a record-breaking Super El Niño later this year.

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Its potential fingerprints are taking the form of storm-killing wind shear, smudging up a hurricane season that’s produced two tropical storms to date, both very close to home. Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the Gulf on Monday, but this is still the quietest start to the season in over a decade.

Wind shear describes the changes in wind direction or speed between different levels of the atmosphere. It can tear apart tropical systems or prevent them from forming in the first place — and it’s established a firm grip over the Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic Ocean. June and July are typically the quietest months of the season, but this shear has been a major roadblock and could have implications for the peak months, too.

“The number one calling card of El Niño is that wind shear,” said Michael Lowry, a Miami-based hurricane expert with CNN affiliate WPLG-TV.

Wind shear over the Caribbean had its second-highest start to July since satellite records began in 1979, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data parsed by Lowry.

And having such significant wind shear over the Caribbean and the western Atlantic — which should be active areas for tropical development — is “one of the stronger indicators that we look to for future seasonal hurricane activity,” Lowry said.

El Niño might not shoulder all the blame for the intense wind shear that’s been around at least since the season began on June 1, but it’s the prime suspect and the evidence is piling up.

Laying out the case

The current wind shear behavior is matching up closely enough with what’s expected from El Niño that the two are likely related, according to Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with NOAA. The in-depth studies needed to confirm this link won’t come until after hurricane season ends in November, he noted.

The uncertainty lies in the chaotic, complex atmosphere: Global weather patterns that unfold over weeks — or months — and daily weather are all connected in a way that’s sometimes difficult to pick apart.

But signs of El Niño are starting to show up in other global-scale atmospheric wind and weather patterns, including the Walker Circulation, according to Lowry, which lends more credence to the idea that El Niño has its finger on the scales.

The Walker Circulation is part of the process that notches up wind shear over the Atlantic during El Niño years. It’s a loop consisting of rising and sinking air, which encourage and hinder storm development, respectively. Air rises above the now warmer Pacific, then sinks down over parts of the western Atlantic basin, helping suppress the storms that could grow into a tropical system.

Other experts have come to similar cautious conclusions.

“I don’t think we can say exactly that (current wind shear) is for sure caused by the El Niño, but I think it’s very likely that it is,” said Levi Silvers, a research scientist and co-author of Colorado State University’s hurricane season forecasts.

“All the pieces are fitting together in a way that makes sense and a way that is consistent with the science that we already understand.”

What it means for hurricane season

There’s a strong statistical relationship between stronger wind shear in the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic in July and a less active peak hurricane season — mid-August through mid-October, because most opportunities for new tropical activity there will likely continue to be snuffed out before they get a chance to start.

It also means any storms that develop farther east and traverse the Atlantic — which is the case for most tropical systems in a season — will face resistance when arriving in these areas.

A vast majority of pre-season forecasts called for a quieter than normal hurricane season because of the then-anticipated El Niño. Now that confidence is growing that a Super El Niño is coming, some groups — including Colorado State University — have recently revised their storm numbers down even further.

But threats can still develop closer to home, in the Gulf or along the southeastern coast.

The first named system this season, Tropical Storm Arthur, was a very short-lived storm that formed right along the Texas coast in June but still ushered in life-threatening flooding in parts of the Gulf Coast. Arthur still battled storm-killing winds, but they were weaker than what it would have faced farther south.

Bertha is facing a similar wind shear setup to Arthur. But this time, extremely warm water in the Gulf is expected to help counteract those storm-killing winds somewhat, giving Bertha fuel to survive longer and become stronger than Arthur.

But wind shear is ultimately likely to win out and keep Bertha from becoming a hurricane.

The second named storm forms around July 17 on average, so the season as a whole isn’t technically behind yet. But forecasts are growing more confident in an overall lack of storms by the month.

The-CNN-Wire
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In record heat, a warming world has come to rely on China to stay cool

By CNN
Hong Kong (CNN) — With wildfires blazing and temperatures hitting record highs in Europe, one China-made product has never been hotter: air-conditioners.Europeans, who have been slower to adopt AC than those living in other parts of the world, are lining up outside stores and driving long distances in the hopes of securing an AC unit as blistering summer temperatures in some areas surge past 100 degrees Fahrenheit.Major Chinese brands Midea, Gree and Haier are reporting AC higher sales overseas, just as leaders in countries such as France, Germany and Belgium are threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, which they say are damaging their own industries.While air conditioning accounts for a small portion of Chinese exports to the EU, China has seized on the surge in sales as evidence that European consumers need Chinese products.A column recently published by the official state-run news agency Xinhua criticized European policymakers for ignoring the needs of consumers, titled: “The air conditioner paradox: Europe is too hot for tariffs on China.”“Blocking Chinese ACs won’t fix Europe’s problems –– it will only make life harder for ordinary people,” the author of the op-ed wrote.The EU and China will hold discussions over the next few months to address the record trade imbalance of nearly 360 billion euros, or about $406 billion, as of last year. The gap has widened in recent years as China has ramped up exports, particularly of electric and hybrid cars that threaten to displace Europe’s biggest auto brands.“It makes trade negotiations extremely difficult,” said Cameron Johnson, a supply chain expert and senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, a Shanghai-based consultancy.“If you’re a government, you cannot tell people, ‘Sorry, you can’t have air conditioning because we don’t want Chinese overcapacity.’”‘Too hot for tariffs’Other parts of the world have come to rely on China for air conditioning as well. In the US, where “heat domes” have led to extreme heat warnings in the south and central regions, Chinese brands account for 50% of the market, according to Euromonitor International, a market intelligence company. Globally, that figure reached 65% last year, the firm said.Veronika Kandusova, global insight manager for consumer appliances at Euromonitor International, expects that proportion to increase alongside global temperatures. Chinese brands were able to capitalize on high demand this year, especially in Europe, thanks to flexible supply chains that can rapidly develop new, localized products.European consumers have lagged behind the rest of the world in adopting AC, due to high energy costs, expensive installation fees and restrictions on retrofitting the continent’s older buildings. In the past, summers have not been hot enough to justify the trouble for most homes.The climate crisis is now changing that.Midea Group, one of China’s largest home appliance brands, designed its PortaSplitAC unit specifically for Europe by making it portable, quiet and low enough to keep from blocking European windows. The model has sold more than 200,000 units this year, doubling year-on-year, the company said.“European home appliance markets, long dominated by Bosch, Electrolux, Miele, and other established Western brands by default, are opening competitive gaps that Chinese companies are structurally positioned to fill,” the research firm EqualOcean wrote in a blog post last month. “Midea’s PortaSplit is the product that crystallizes the shift.”Those advantages translate to many other industries that could give China more sway in global trade, said Johnson of Tidalwave Solutions.“This is just the beginning,” he said. “As inflation starts to gain hold in Europe and in the States, people don’t want to pay more for products. So what do you do? Well, you have to have some Chinese stuff.”Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said that European countries are more focused on addressing specific strategic segments and Chinese industrial policies than broadly inhibiting Chinese imports.“The EU is neither looking for complete balance — in the sense that every euro of goods imported must correspond to a euro of goods exported — nor to reduce its reliance on China for more widely available household appliances,” he said.Seeking hotter marketsChina also needs new markets like Europe. Facing a housing slump and declining consumption at home, China has ramped up exports to other nations to buttress slowing economic growth. China ended last year with a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.Even with rising exports, China’s reported second-quarter GDP was the lowest in more than three years.Much of China’s recent export strength is driven by high-tech goods like batteries, electric cars and solar. These have become known as the “new three” categories for export growth, as the “old three” –– clothing, furniture, and home appliances –– have tapered.As its summers grow hotter, Europe offers Chinese appliance makers a potential renaissance.Europe has the world’s lowest penetration rates for air conditioning, said Denis Depoux, global managing director at the consultancy Roland Berger, averaging about 20%. That’s compared to 90% penetration in the US, where Chinese exports would also face tariffs.“Europe is the prize,” he said. “If I am a Chinese manufacturer of air conditioning units, Europe is a very attractive market. It’s growing demand, it’s new, it’s affluent, margins are higher.”According to Chinese media, some regions like China’s eastern Shandong province have received government support to boost manufacturing of cooling products and other home appliances this year.Korean and Japanese appliance makers are also benefiting from booming European demand. Meanwhile, University of Michigan economics professor Chris Douglas argued in an op-ed this month that the state of Michigan should manufacture air conditioners for Europe.However, the seasonal nature of cooling demand will limit market opportunities as temperatures eventually ease.“In two months people will have forgotten that air conditioning was needed during the summer, but it will come again,” Depoux said. “Is it a meaningful, sustainable opportunity? I’m not so sure.”One sourcing agent in China was already encouraging retailers to stock up for next year, in a marketing video published to WeChat, China’s popular social messaging app, titled, “Europe’s AC Gold Rush! Print Cash From The Heatwave.”“Secure your market position before the 2027 madness begins,” she said, twirling and pointing to a room full of portable fans and coolers.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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