(CNN) — After the United States captured Venezuela’s president in January and increased economic pressure on Cuba in the following months, many wondered if the White House’s next target would be Nicaragua, another Latin American country with an autocratic leader, who this week ruled out the possibility of new elections.
However, the US has done little to signal that it will take imminent action in Nicaragua, while the country’s co-presidents – Daniel Ortega and wife Rosario Murillo – have largely kept a low profile and avoided provoking the Trump administration.
In fact, days after the US operation in Venezuela, Nicaragua announced measures that were interpreted as gestures toward Washington. It freed dozens of prisoners after the US demanded their release and subsequently reinstated a visa requirement for Cubans that limited their migration toward North America.
In April, the US imposed new sanctions on Nicaraguan officials, this time, targeting two of Ortega and Murillo’s sons. Moreover, Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised the tone toward Managua and recently condemned Ortega’s declaration to scrap elections, but he has so far stopped short of proposing regime change as he has explicitly done with Cuba.
“For Marco Rubio, Cuba matters much more than Nicaragua. Also, Nicaragua does not have Venezuela’s natural resources,” said Professor Kai Thaler of the Department of Global Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
He said another key difference is that Nicaragua is ruled by a family and lacks a clear successor like Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez, who took over as that country’ leader after the US captured President Nicolas Maduro.
“Every alternative for leadership has been eliminated by Ortega and Murillo,” he asserted.
The US roadmap
With Nicaragua, the United States has a different approach than the one applied to Caracas and Havana, according to Nicaraguan political scientist Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at the US-based Inter-American Dialogue.
The analyst said the White House wants to avoid actions that could lead to waves of migration or repression and instead bets on gradual changes without direct intervention.
“One interpretation is that the political inertia in the Murillo and Ortega dictatorship will generate internal conflict, an economic slowdown, a possible social protest where (the US) can leverage its pressure. But not the other way around. If it intervenes at this moment, it is not known what the effect on a political transition would be,” Orozco said.
He emphasized that the Sandinista government, which has been in power since 2007, isn’t facing economic turbulence or street protests, so if the US intervenes, “it would be forcing a transition.”
With the US in a bind, the Ortega-Murillo government can “take advantage of the circumstances and keep a low profile,” he said.
In April, Ortega made rare public statements in which he called US sanctions on his children “mentally deranged.” Three months later, he announced the end of elections and described Maduro’s capture as a “monstrosity.”
Thaler said such statements indicate the government “does not believe the United States is going to focus on Nicaragua, that Ortega feels safe criticizing and insulting Trump like that.”
Orozco suggested the April statement was primarily a message for the internal ranks. “Put pejoratively, it’s as if they let the dog out to bark, but not to bite. It’s symbolic for the internal base, to say that we are still anti-imperialists. The reality is different; there is no expression of solidarity with Venezuela or Cuba in rhetoric or foreign policy,” he said.
CNN sent inquiries to the Nicaraguan government, which does not usually respond to the press.
Orozco maintained that the United States “has been developing a series of pressures” through sanctions, to which Nicaragua rarely responds, in a nearly constant pattern.
“A mistaken reading gives the impression that Nicaragua comes after (Venezuela and Cuba), that the only US policy is direct intervention. There is no calculation of what that means. No one thinks about what it would mean for the US to remove these people from power when there is no opposition, the citizens do not know who the leaders in exile are, and there is economic stability. It is speculation about something that is not certain,” he asserted.
With that caution, he said that the United States could be thinking more long-term, eyeing general elections that are theoretically scheduled for November 2027 (if Ortega doesn’t follow through on this threat to cancel them).
“They are planning to synchronize pressure so that some kind of reform is introduced,” Orozco said. “Sanctions have to do with cornering the regime. It is likely that they will not miss the opportunity for Nicaragua to enter a democratic transformation.”
Meanwhile, Thaler pointed out that the US currently isn’t paying much attention to Nicaragua, and he doesn’t expect any shifts in the short term.
“There are sanctions on regime officials, but it is something that happens every three or six months. It is not a sign of greater than normal attention. It is difficult to imagine a major change in US policy toward Nicaragua, currently it is at war with Iran. There is a pressure campaign against Cuba that did not have many results. Without new events, I do not see a big change,” he said.
A stable dynasty
Thaler noted that Ortega and Murillo are always prepared to negotiate with the United States, even if there is no dialogue table set up.
Signals such as the release of prisoners are “superficial concessions to reduce US pressure without threatening their power, without truly conceding anything,” he emphasized.
The analyst concluded that elections and democracy in Nicaragua are “far from possible at this moment” – especially without a unified opposition.
“It is very fragmented. There are people like (the activist and academic) Félix Madariaga who are so prominent, who continue their efforts to keep the Nicaraguan cause in the discourse of the US and the world, but there is no unity, there is no common cause other than the end of the dictatorship.”
While part of the opposition is hoping for a possible internal split within the government, analysts agree that such a scenario is unlikely.
“It does not seem that there are alternatives within the regime or great possibilities of any fracture. There is a possibility of another family succession by one of the children, such as Laureano, but there are no generals, vice presidents” who could emerge as a possibility, said Thaler.
“The most plausible scenario is the continuity of the regime with Rosario Murillo in a stronger position than ever. Daniel (80 years old) is less and less present in public life. Rosario (74) is much more active in governing day to day. There is a greater role in politics for Laureano, for the children, but so far there are no indications of any possibility of transition,” he reaffirmed.
Both analysts said that Murillo, who received the title of co-president in February 2025, is already at the helm. This also seems to be the position of the State Department, which has begun to name Murillo before Ortega in its statements, a possible recognition of her growing political weight.
“Historically, there has been the feeling that a transition to Rosario would provoke fractures within the Sandinista Front. It is still possible, but today’s Front is very different from that of a decade ago. Not only is it a personalist party, it is also because of Rosario, who worked to ensure that people in positions of power are loyal to her, and not just to Daniel,” said Thaler, who affirmed that the presidential couple maintains strong control over the security forces and the citizen control apparatuses.
However, Orozco suggested that Murillo does not have a popular base and continues to rely on Ortega’s image. “Her political capital with the army is quite functional, transactional in nature. They are allowed to manage resources, but if pressure arises, if the cost-benefit changes, support will begin to wane. There is a balance of power in her favor internally, but it is not solid enough to guarantee that she will make it to 2027,” he said.
Orozco questioned the probability of success for a family dynasty that has lasted almost two decades and could try to continue it with Laureano, pointing out that “there are members of the family itself who do not want that model.”
In any case, Orozco highlighted the government’s resilience in facing challenges. “These people have more than 40 years of political experience. There are few people who know how to deal with these types of characters.”
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