(CNN) — Nevada and South Carolina are the leading contenders to be recommended to head Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary calendar, according to conversations with members of a powerful panel within the Democratic National Committee.
“I have to say at this point it’s probably 50-50,” said one member of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee granted anonymity to speak on private deliberations. “This is going to be a tough one.”
The panel is gathering in Washington, DC, this week to select up to five states for its early primary window, capping months of aggressive lobbying by states looking for a prime spot on the calendar. The committee will recommend a slate to the full DNC to consider as soon as next month.
The RBC member said the panel is zeroing in on two scenarios that would seek to strike a balance between states with large Black and Latino voting blocs.
In one scenario, Nevada would lead the calendar, followed by South Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire, and another southern state — most likely Virginia.
In the other, South Carolina would go first, followed by Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and New Hampshire. Moving New Mexico, which has a sizeable Latino population, into the early window alongside Nevada would be a sort of “consolation prize” for the Latino community losing out on prominent representation in the first primary state, the RBC member said.
“I think that a lot of people are thinking about that kind of counterweight,” they said.
Nevada’s backers have pointed to the state’s diversity, strong labor unions and status as a competitive battleground state as reasons why Democrats should give it the top slot.
“If Nevada goes first, it’s a strategic decision for our party as we work to build a coalition that we know we need to build to win back the White House in 2028,” Nevada Democratic Party chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno told CNN. “Nevada is that proving ground for national candidates, period.”
The state’s allies have stressed that they don’t just have a sizeable Latino voting bloc, but a population that includes Black, Asian American and Pacific Islander, Native American and White working-class voters.
“We’ve been clear at every step, this is about reaching a broad coalition of diverse voters, not elevating or prioritizing any voice over another,” Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Rep. Steven Horsford wrote in a Wednesday letter to RBC members obtained by CNN.
The New York Times first reported on South Carolina and Nevada’s emergence as the front-runners.
South Carolina was moved first in 2024 at the behest of former President Joe Biden. Advocates for keeping it in the top spot have pointed to a wave of Republican-led attacks on Black electoral power, including an unprecedented mid-cycle redistricting push and the Supreme Court’s Callais decision that weakened the Voting Rights Act. They’ve argued maintaining the state’s current position would underscore the importance of voting rights for the Black community.
The state’s surrogates have also pointed to its history of picking eventual Democratic primary winners, including in 2020 when Biden’s South Carolina victory rescued his stalled presidential bid.
“We’ve just been telling the history of South Carolina in this process, how our voters have always gotten it right,” said Christale Spain, the chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party and an RBC member.
While Nevada and South Carolina are contending for either the first or second slots, it’s not clear how the rest of the slate would pan out.
“There are about a billion computations out there,” said another RBC member, who said they would prefer Nevada and South Carolina in the first two slots but had not heard the lineups described by the first member.
Two other sources, a third RBC member and a person familiar with the panel’s thinking, said Virginia and New Mexico are likely competing for a fifth slot on the calendar.
An aggressive, yearslong lobbying campaign
For decades, both Democrats and Republicans led their presidential nominating calendars with the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. More recently, South Carolina and Nevada claimed the next spots on the Democratic calendar, before the rest of the states jump in on or after Super Tuesday.
But ahead of the 2024 presidential primaries, Democrats decided to require states to apply for early window slots each cycle. The DNC voted to make South Carolina the first primary state during the 2024 cycle at the request of then-President Biden.
This time around, there’s no national figure putting their thumb on the scale, RBC members say. That’s kicked off months, if not years, of lobbying by state parties and their allies.
Nevada, which has two members on the RBC, has been the most aggressive in its campaigning, several RBC members told CNN.
Nevada Democrats have held receptions for DNC members at party gatherings this year — including ahead of this week’s meeting. Monroe-Moreno said members of the state’s congressional delegation would attend a Wednesday reception. Supporters such as former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is running for governor in California, and Latino groups such as CHC BOLD PAC have publicly backed the state’s bid.
“I don’t know if anybody’s been lobbying harder than Nevada,” said Spain, adding that she and Monroe-Moreno are friends and the calendar battle hasn’t become personal. “Of course, we’re Southern, so we took a different approach.”
Allies of South Carolina have been publicly and privately lobbying members of the committee, arguing that the party must keep its commitment to Black voters. In a nine-page letter sent to RBC members earlier this month and obtained by CNN, former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison – a Biden ally and South Carolina native – wrote that history will judge whether “the Democratic Party had the courage to keep faith with the voters who had so faithfully kept faith with it.”
New Hampshire and Iowa’s longshot bids
The former longtime front-runner states, however, aren’t going down without a fight.
Ray Buckley, the New Hampshire Democratic Party chair who also sits on the RBC, has been personally pitching his state to other members of the committee. His party has given out free swag, including dozens of copies of Granite State resident Ken Burns’ most recent book, at the RBC’s January meeting in Puerto Rico.
“We’ve been focused on having conversations one-on-one with committee members, and we’re encouraged by how those have been going,” Buckley said in a statement to CNN.
But those entreaties have failed to sway some members of the committee.
“There doesn’t seem to be any appetite at all, except maybe Ray Buckley, for New Hampshire to go first,” the first member said, adding that some RBC members wanted to exclude the state from the early window altogether.
Iowa no longer has any members on the RBC, but state party chair Rita Hart has been calling committee members, asking them to delay a decision on the calendar until after the November elections. Iowa Democrats are running competitive races for governor, US Senate, and three US House seats, contests that could make their bid for an early window slot more competitive.
“We’ve heard from several states that have suggested it’s unwise to do this now,” Erin Moynihan, a senior communications adviser for the Iowa Democratic Party, said in a statement to CNN. “We’ve said all along our focus needs to be on winning in November.”
But RBC members told CNN there’s little interest in delaying. The second committee member said they received two calls from the Iowa chair after the state had made its pitch to the panel, but sent both to voicemail.
“There’s literally nothing Iowa could do or say to get me to vote for them,” the member told CNN in a text.
This headline has been updated.
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