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The national homicide rate in the U.S. continued its historic decline in the first half of 2026, although eight cities — including San Francisco, Dallas, and Norfolk, Virginia — saw spikes compared to the same period in 2025, a new study finds.
The downward trend continues from last year, which saw the largest single year-over-year drop and likely the lowest murder rate in the U.S. since 1900, pending the final FBI crime statistics for the year.
This year, the picture was slightly more nuanced: in 21 of the 30 cities surveyed in 2026, there was an average homicide rate drop of 18% from January to June, according to new data analysis released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization.
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity,” said CCJ president and CEO Adam Gelb.
“Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” Gelb said, referring to the ways technology is reshaping our lives and keeping people at home, and a decrease in people abusing alcohol.
The study examined patterns for 13 crime types in 36 cities and found nine crime types dropped in the first half of 2026. Carjackings had the largest drop, while drug offenses saw the largest rise when compared with the first half of 2025, but were still lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Aggravated assaults remained about the same, with a 2% drop when compared to the first half of 2025 and a 3% drop when compared to the first half of 2019.
Researchers pointed to a variety of factors behind the continuing drop in homicides, with no single explanation for the trend.
But while the overall rate was down, a CBS News review of the statistics found an unusual mix of cities that saw homicides increase. Four cities surveyed experienced double-digit jumps in murders when compared to the same time period last year.
Homicide rates in San Francisco, Dallas and other cities
In San Francisco, homicide rates increased by 55% when compared to the same period in 2025, the study said.
However, the city’s police department provided different figures. Evan Sernoffsky, a San Francisco Police spokesperson, told CBS News there have been 16 homicides so far this year. Last year, San Francisco had 13 homicides during the same time period, and ended the year with the lowest homicide rate in over 70 years.
“We recognize that homicides have increased slightly this year compared to last year. Even one homicide is one too many, and the SFPD will continue to make these crimes our top priority,” Sernoffsky said.
The study notes that it relies on data obtained shortly after the time period being analyzed, which may differ from the official figures that are published later by police departments. Offense counts were converted to monthly crime rates per 100,000 city residents for the study’s analysis of monthly and half-year trends.
“San Francisco had the fewest murders since 1941 last year, so this is an increase from a very low level,” said Jeff Asher, co-founder of the data analytics firm AH Datalytics.
Other cities that have seen double-digit jumps in homicides so far this year include Dallas and Salt Lake City, according to the study.
The analysis found a 30% increase in Dallas’ homicide rate. But a spokesperson for the Dallas Police Department said the department’s “official crime data does not reflect a 30 percent increase in homicides for the same reporting period.”
Austin, Texas, saw a 9% increase from last year, part of a 74% increase since 2019, the study said. A spokesperson for the Austin Police said the department has not seen a significant increase.
The study reported single-digit increases in Denver, Chicago and Charlotte.
Norfolk, Virginia, has seen homicide rates rise and fall, with the study finding it’s currently 36% higher than it was for the first half of 2019. Norfolk’s homicide rate spiked 64% in the first half of this year, the study said.
Norfolk Police Chief Mark Talbot, however, said in an earlier statement that the murder rate in 2025 was the lowest in 40 years. He credited an increase in strategic staffing and the use of technology for last year’s drop. Norfolk police did not respond to a request for comment about the latest figures.
On the positive side, Little Rock, Arkansas, saw a 61% drop in homicides during the first half of 2026 when compared to last year. Rochester, New York, managed a drop of 76%.
Lincoln, Nebraska, has seen a drop from six murders in 2025 to zero so far in 2026.
“The Lincoln Police Department is encouraged to see a 100% drop in homicides in our city from 2025 to this year. This historic milestone is something our entire community can be proud of. We are hopeful this positive trend continues,” a police spokesperson said in a statement to CBS News.
In addition to the lower homicide rate overall across the cities surveyed, the share of serious violent crimes that were fatal fell 23% from the first half of 2025, the report found.
