(CNN) — The prediction market Kalshi threatened legal action against Netflix on Friday, claiming a trailer for its upcoming documentary about the industry contains defamatory and “fabricated” content, according to a letter obtained by CNN.
Netflix, the popular streaming service, released a trailer Thursday teasing the documentary, “The Prediction Games,” which is set to be released Sunday. The footage shows traders partying at a mansion in Las Vegas while watching the recent World Cup final and touting their winnings on prediction sites, including Kalshi.
It’s unclear where and when the trades featured in the trailer were placed. But industry watchers pointed out that there’s currently a court order requiring Kalshi to block sports-related markets in Nevada, due to a lawsuit against the company that was filed by the Nevada Gaming Commission.
Kalshi says it is complying with the judge’s orders, and its lawyers wrote in the cease-and-desist letter that the trailer contained “misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.”
A spokesperson for Netflix told CNN the most prominent trade shown in the trailer was placed in 2025, long before any court orders restricting Kalshi.
On prediction markets, users can bet on nearly everything, from sports, to elections, awards shows, the weather and more. They have exploded in popularity this year and now see billions of dollars in weekly volume.
Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket aren’t legally considered gambling platforms under federal law. Instead, they’re regulated like commodity trading.
But a bipartisan coalition of more than 40 states have argued that these companies are running unlicensed casinos. Dozens of lawsuits are underway, with states trying to enforce gaming laws. Judges in Nevada, Michigan and Washington state have blocked at least some Kalshi activity in their states.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but its editorial employees are prohibited from trading on prediction markets.
World Cup wagers
The casino industry is also mounting its own push against prediction markets. The party in Las Vegas, featured in the Netflix trailer, was hosted by Winible, a content creator platform with close ties to the gaming industry.
In the trailer, one man showed what looked like a Kalshi trading slip on his phone, with a $5,000 bet for Spain to win the World Cup, (Spain defeated Argentina 1-0.) A Netflix spokesperson told CNN that the footage was filmed at the Winible event last weekend, but the trade in question was much older.
“The featured trader, with the trades on Spain, showed us a screenshot of his bet that was made in May 2025, prior to any Nevada court order,” the Netflix spokesperson said on condition of anonymity.
Kalshi further claimed the screenshot was “fabricated” because it contained phrases that it says have never appeared on its site, like “bet slip.” (The company studiously avoids using terms like “wager” or “betting,” because it insists that its products aren’t gambling, but rather trading of derivative swaps – an important distinction for regulators and the courts.)
The Netflix spokesperson declined to comment about this specific allegation.
The legal threat comes after Kalshi cooperated with the documentary: The film features an interview with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, as well as the CEO of its biggest rival, Polymarket, according to promotional materials. (Polymarket declined to comment.)
“Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets,” Kalshi’s head of marketing, Brandon Beckhardt, said in a statement. “Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.”
Winible did not respond to CNN’s request for comment. The executive producer of the documentary also did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.
The-CNN-Wire
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