Skip to main content

How much shooting does it take to end a ‘ceasefire’?

(CNN) — Last week, President Donald Trump declared that the “ceasefire” with Iran was “OVER,” as US forces carried out consecutive nights of strikes against Iran.

Trump had originally announced the ceasefire in early April, just hours after threatening that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” After announcing it would last for two weeks, he went on to extend it. But in the weeks that followed, and even after the US and Iran signed a “memorandum of understanding” that kicked off a 60-day period of negotiations to end the war, the firing did not cease. As the US and Iran continued to exchange back-and-forth attacks, Trump insisted the ceasefire remained in effect — until he decided last week that whatever thread was holding the ceasefire together had finally snapped.

This much is clear: A “ceasefire,” at least lately, doesn’t necessarily constitute a ceasing of fire. Fighting between Israel and Iran’s ally Hezbollah continued in Lebanon despite US-brokered ceasefires between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, with the Norwegian Refugee Council reporting that nearly 600 people were killed in Lebanon in the weeks following the April ceasefire. And since Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan, endorsed by the United Nations Security Council, went into effect in October, Israel has continued to attack the territory almost daily, saying it is targeting Hamas: A tally by the Government Media Office in Gaza indicates that Israel has violated the ceasefire at least 3,689 times.

What, then, is a “ceasefire”? Though the concept is as old as war itself, the term was first recorded in the mid-19th century, appearing in a Scottish newspaper as a two-word military command to cease active hostilities. During the 20th century, it evolved into a one-word noun denoting a temporary suspension of hostilities — a condition of neither peace nor outright war.

When used by political leaders, as well as journalists reporting on their remarks, the word “ceasefire” suggests that the violence in a conflict has stopped, says Rachel Nelson, an analyst at the Middle East Policy Council. But she says that often doesn’t reflect what the combatants are still doing. “Really the question is whether these parties are actually honoring what they agreed to,” she adds.

Despite how straightforward it sounds, a “ceasefire” can encompass a range of conditions. The United Nations notes that there is no single, universally accepted definition of the term, leaving parties in armed conflicts to determine what it entails for their particular situations. The Palgrave Macmillan Dictionary of Diplomacy indicates that a ceasefire can be confined to a particular area where fighting has erupted or it can cover the entirety of the conflict region, though it notes that “it is usually implicit in such agreements that the cessation of firing is accompanied by no forward movement of positions or armament.”

This month also marks the 73rd anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement, which established a ceasefire between the militaries of the two Koreas and their respective allies until a final peace agreement between North and South Korea could be achieved. Nearly three-quarters of a century later, the ceasefire remains in place — even as both sides have exchanged cross-border gunfire over the years, and as a formal peace treaty remains elusive.

But without a strict definition in place, nations and political leaders have taken liberties with the term. Trump, when asked to define a ceasefire in a June 3 White House briefing, suggested that the word meant something different in the Middle East: “I’d say in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner.”

At least in terms of capturing the situation on the ground, Trump’s definition was accurate, says Mona Yacoubian, director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The exchange of hostilities that continued after the ceasefire was announced were indeed less intense than in the first few weeks of the war. “But it begs the question of how is that a ceasefire?” she adds.

A “ceasefire,” foreign policy experts say, is only as good as the fine print. “‘Ceasefire’ is a broad term, so it’s important to be clear on what was agreed,” Matt Waxman, adjunct senior fellow for law and foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes in an email. “For example, is the agreement short-term or long-term, and exactly what ‘fire’ the parties agree to ‘cease.’”

The “ceasefire” set in motion by the June agreement between the US and Iran was plagued by a lack of precision. One sticking point in the agreement revolved around what it meant to open the Strait of Hormuz. The US understood the agreement to mean that Iran would provide unimpeded access through the strait. When the Iranians opened only one channel, and attacked vessels traveling through other routes it described as unauthorized, the US claimed Iran reneged on the agreement, while Iran claimed the same of the US.

There was a certain amount of skepticism baked into the ceasefire to begin with. News reports, at varying points in the conflict, characterized it as “shaky,” “tenuous” or “unraveling,” conveying just how uncertain it was. Still, Yacoubian notes that there was utility in negotiators refraining from declaring the ceasefire dead: Even as Iran was attacking shipping traffic, and even as the US carried out military strikes, hedging kept open the possibility that negotiations could continue and possibly move toward something more closely resembling what “ceasefire” conveys.

As the word ceases to mean a ceasing of fire, new terms have been coined. When Israel continued to fire on Lebanon after a ceasefire was reached in November 2024, Yacoubian says she took to calling it a “less fire.”

For “ceasefire” to regain any semblance of meaning, Yacoubian says violations need to be called out as such. “By continuing to call something a ceasefire when it’s absolutely not a ceasefire does seem to suggest some kind of degree of complacency or acceptance of that reality, without actually trying to address the challenges,” she says. To use the word “ceasefire” to describe a situation in which there isn’t any cessation of firing only dilutes its meaning, she says, eventually rendering it meaningless.

But by Trump’s account, it seems a “ceasefire” — and the agreement governing it — was never that serious at all. “Memorandum of understanding when you’re dealing with sleazebags don’t mean much,” he said in a July 13 interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “And they don’t mean much when you’re dealing with honorable people, too.”

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

In record heat, a warming world has come to rely on China to stay cool

Hong Kong (CNN) — With wildfires blazing and temperatures hitting record highs in Europe, one China-made product has never been hotter: air-conditioners.Europeans, who have been slower to adopt AC than those living in other parts of the world, are lining up outside stores and driving long distances in the hopes of securing an AC unit as blistering summer temperatures in some areas surge past 100 degrees Fahrenheit.Major Chinese brands Midea, Gree and Haier are reporting AC higher sales overseas, just as leaders in countries such as France, Germany and Belgium are threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, which they say are damaging their own industries.While air conditioning accounts for a small portion of Chinese exports to the EU, China has seized on the surge in sales as evidence that European consumers need Chinese products.A column recently published by the official state-run news agency Xinhua criticized European policymakers for ignoring the needs of consumers, titled: “The air conditioner paradox: Europe is too hot for tariffs on China.”“Blocking Chinese ACs won’t fix Europe’s problems –– it will only make life harder for ordinary people,” the author of the op-ed wrote.The EU and China will hold discussions over the next few months to address the record trade imbalance of nearly 360 billion euros, or about $406 billion, as of last year. The gap has widened in recent years as China has ramped up exports, particularly of electric and hybrid cars that threaten to displace Europe’s biggest auto brands.“It makes trade negotiations extremely difficult,” said Cameron Johnson, a supply chain expert and senior partner at Tidalwave Solutions, a Shanghai-based consultancy.“If you’re a government, you cannot tell people, ‘Sorry, you can’t have air conditioning because we don’t want Chinese overcapacity.’”‘Too hot for tariffs’Other parts of the world have come to rely on China for air conditioning as well. In the US, where “heat domes” have led to extreme heat warnings in the south and central regions, Chinese brands account for 50% of the market, according to Euromonitor International, a market intelligence company. Globally, that figure reached 65% last year, the firm said.Veronika Kandusova, global insight manager for consumer appliances at Euromonitor International, expects that proportion to increase alongside global temperatures. Chinese brands were able to capitalize on high demand this year, especially in Europe, thanks to flexible supply chains that can rapidly develop new, localized products.European consumers have lagged behind the rest of the world in adopting AC, due to high energy costs, expensive installation fees and restrictions on retrofitting the continent’s older buildings. In the past, summers have not been hot enough to justify the trouble for most homes.The climate crisis is now changing that.Midea Group, one of China’s largest home appliance brands, designed its PortaSplitAC unit specifically for Europe by making it portable, quiet and low enough to keep from blocking European windows. The model has sold more than 200,000 units this year, doubling year-on-year, the company said.“European home appliance markets, long dominated by Bosch, Electrolux, Miele, and other established Western brands by default, are opening competitive gaps that Chinese companies are structurally positioned to fill,” the research firm EqualOcean wrote in a blog post last month. “Midea’s PortaSplit is the product that crystallizes the shift.”Those advantages translate to many other industries that could give China more sway in global trade, said Johnson of Tidalwave Solutions.“This is just the beginning,” he said. “As inflation starts to gain hold in Europe and in the States, people don’t want to pay more for products. So what do you do? Well, you have to have some Chinese stuff.”Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said that European countries are more focused on addressing specific strategic segments and Chinese industrial policies than broadly inhibiting Chinese imports.“The EU is neither looking for complete balance — in the sense that every euro of goods imported must correspond to a euro of goods exported — nor to reduce its reliance on China for more widely available household appliances,” he said.Seeking hotter marketsChina also needs new markets like Europe. Facing a housing slump and declining consumption at home, China has ramped up exports to other nations to buttress slowing economic growth. China ended last year with a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion.Even with rising exports, China’s reported second-quarter GDP was the lowest in more than three years.Much of China’s recent export strength is driven by high-tech goods like batteries, electric cars and solar. These have become known as the “new three” categories for export growth, as the “old three” –– clothing, furniture, and home appliances –– have tapered.As its summers grow hotter, Europe offers Chinese appliance makers a potential renaissance.Europe has the world’s lowest penetration rates for air conditioning, said Denis Depoux, global managing director at the consultancy Roland Berger, averaging about 20%. That’s compared to 90% penetration in the US, where Chinese exports would also face tariffs.“Europe is the prize,” he said. “If I am a Chinese manufacturer of air conditioning units, Europe is a very attractive market. It’s growing demand, it’s new, it’s affluent, margins are higher.”According to Chinese media, some regions like China’s eastern Shandong province have received government support to boost manufacturing of cooling products and other home appliances this year.Korean and Japanese appliance makers are also benefiting from booming European demand. Meanwhile, University of Michigan economics professor Chris Douglas argued in an op-ed this month that the state of Michigan should manufacture air conditioners for Europe.However, the seasonal nature of cooling demand will limit market opportunities as temperatures eventually ease.“In two months people will have forgotten that air conditioning was needed during the summer, but it will come again,” Depoux said. “Is it a meaningful, sustainable opportunity? I’m not so sure.”One sourcing agent in China was already encouraging retailers to stock up for next year, in a marketing video published to WeChat, China’s popular social messaging app, titled, “Europe’s AC Gold Rush! Print Cash From The Heatwave.”“Secure your market position before the 2027 madness begins,” she said, twirling and pointing to a room full of portable fans and coolers.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Read Next Story