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Gas is nearly $4 again and diesel just topped $5. It’s not what you think

By CNN

(CNN) — US gas prices have rocketed higher during the on-again, off-again war with Iran.

After a brief respite, the average price for gas has surged 15 cents in a week to $3.94 a gallon and appears headed north of $4 again. Diesel, which shows up in customers’ shipping costs, topped $5 a gallon again Thursday for the first time in 3 weeks, according to AAA.

It serves as a painful reminder of how the military conflict in the Persian Gulf has a direct effect on your wallet.

But it’s not quite that simple.

Rising fuel prices aren’t just a story about higher oil prices anymore. Gas and diesel prices have taken on a life of their own, divorced from whatever is going on in the Strait of Hormuz and America’s ability to extract concessions from Iran.

Whiplash

In the three weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was at least partially open, oil companies managed to get more than 200 million barrels of crude out of the Persian Gulf, briefly sending oil prices below pre-war levels. Gas and diesel prices fell too – but nowhere close to where they were before the war.

After the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States collapsed last week, oil prices shot higher, rising above $85 a barrel after hovering in the low $70 range the previous few weeks. That gain is a big deal for gas prices because crude makes up the vast majority of gasoline’s cost.

But oil prices are now up 16% since the start of the war, while gas and diesel have both risen more than 32% – double the oil market’s gains.

That huge imbalance has a little to do with market and trading dynamics – and a lot to do with the particularities of oil refining.

No matter how much oil came out of the strait during the brief moments of relative peace, that crude needed a place to go to make it into something useful. Refineries, which had already made their July plans when the MOU was signed, can’t ramp up or down their capacity with a turn of a dial.

The world’s refinery capacity was greatly diminished during the war: Iran damaged or destroyed 30 Middle Eastern refineries. That prevented a significant recovery after the MOU went into effect. Global refinery output fell by 3 million barrels at the peak of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and 2.1 million barrels of refining capacity remain offline, according to Natasha Kaneva, chief commodities economist at JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, in a totally different part of the world, refinery capacity has also taken a dramatic hit (literally). Ukraine has damaged so many Russian refineries with drone strikes that the world’s second-biggest exporter of diesel has stopped exporting fuel and has suddenly become a net importer, leading to a global diesel shortage.

America’s manufactured gas problem

The United States has the exact opposite problem: Its refineries have been running at 96% of capacity last month. US refineries processed their largest amount of crude in the second quarter since 2019.

But a record amount of American-produced fuel is heading overseas – in the form of jet fuel (for Europe) and diesel (for Asia and Australia) to help the world bridge the gap in fuel supplies.

That has sent US gasoline inventories to their lowest levels since 2012. At 210 million barrels, inventories are just 20 million above critical levels, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Inventories are just over 30 million barrels above the lows reached during Hurricane Katrina, where stations across the United States ran out of gas.

The share of US fuel for the American market is now falling while gas demand for summer travel is on the rise and diesel demand is about to peak as US farmers begin the fall harvest. Low supply and high demand are a recipe for high prices.

That has sent crack spreads – the profit margin US refineries make – to a record high. Gasoline crack spreads at US refineries are up 60% from a year ago and diesel and jet fuel crack spreads are more than double their 2025 levels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

But this summer’s extreme heat could pose an even bigger problem: Refineries need cool temperatures to operate efficiently. They need to boil the oil into its various constituents and cool it down to create gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products. If temperatures are too high, refineries struggle to do their job – and they can’t make as much gas.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

Trump secretly switched planes in Turkey amid security concerns, official says

By CNN
(CNN) — President Donald Trump secretly slipped out of Turkey last month on an alternate military plane, which he boarded while hidden inside a catering truck, as part of an elaborate ruse prompted by an Iranian threat, according to a US official.The clandestine security plan — first reported by the Washington Post and confirmed by CNN — underscored the lengths American officials went to in order to protect Trump from being assassinated by Iran.Trump had flown to Turkey on a new plane gifted by Qatar and meant to be used as Air Force One. But while he was on the trip, officials announced he would fly out on an older presidential plane, which CNN and others had previously reported was due to security concerns.That, though, was apparently part of the subterfuge. After boarding the older aircraft, a moment caught on camera, Trump secretly got off via the catering vehicle and moved to a smaller Air Force C-32A. The Qatari-gifted plane, the older aircraft used as Air Force One, and the C-32A then all departed separately for the UK. Once there, Trump got on board the Qatari-gifted plane and flew home.For the last month, much of the public discussion about the plane swap had been centered around the security capabilities of the Qatar-donated plane. Trump had boasted about the new aircraft — even though officials felt it was not as secure as other planes because it had to be retrofitted to serve as Air Force One — and the president seethed privately over coverage of its deficiencies, CNN previously reported.Now, attention is likely to shift to reporters and staffers unknowingly being aboard a decoy plane — and the nature of the threat that prompted such dramatic security measures.When asked about the reports of the secret plane switch, White House spokesperson Steven Cheung told CNN, “The new Air Force One is a state-of-the-art aircraft that has been fitted with high-level security protocols that ensure the safety of the President and his staff. As the President has said recently, there are many enemies of America who have their sights on him, and we use every tool at our disposal to address those threats.”Details from the presidential travel pool — a group of journalists who travel with the president and document his movements — provide a closer look at the unusual sequence of events surrounding Trump’s departure from Turkey following a consequential NATO Summit.Trump was aboard the old Air Force One in Ankara as of 8:26 p.m. local time, according to a pool report.Air Force One was wheels up at 8:43 p.m. local time, according to a subsequent pool report, 17 minutes later.The pool was also “advised to keep our window shades in the press cabin closed,” according to a print pool note from Politico’s Megan Messerly. This is extraordinarily unusual, and seemed indicative of a security situation; Trump would later say it was “because you’re probably on a dangerous flight because of the sleaze bags that we have to deal with.”A supplemental pool note from ABC’s Michelle Stoddart on Tuesday, sent in light of the secret plane revelation, noted that a Secret Secret agent came back to the press cabin to remind the media to keep the shades closed. When a photographer attempted to lift a shade, they were quickly told to lower it again. And when the press inquired with White House staff about why, they only said it was a request from Secret Service.Video shows what appeared to be a catering truck parked next to Air Force One at Ankara’s Esenboga Airport during that time, about seven minutes before the aircraft begins taxiing.The plane then was “wheels down” at RAF Mildenhall in England at 10:29 p.m. local time. But it wasn’t until roughly 20 minutes later that the pool notified news networks that an underwing shot — a camera angle from underneath the wing of the plane — was being set up to capture the president deplaning.That is an unusually long period of time — and it’s enough that Trump theoretically would be able to get off the smaller plane and back on Air Force One before cameras could capture it. For comparison, CNN was part of the pool on Sunday, when it took roughly eight minutes between wheels down and the underwing shot to be established.Trump was seen stepping off Air Force One about one minute after the pool alerted that the underwing shot was up.That timing was notably faster than what CNN crews typically experience. Usually, it takes several minutes for the president to deplane after the pool crew has assembled under the aircraft. The pool is generally in position before the first Air Force One door is opened and the stairs for the president are put into place.CNN reviewed pool video from Mildenhall that showed the stair car already in position and the aircraft door already open when the pool shot came up. There also appeared to be more security personnel on the tarmac than CNN crews are accustomed to seeing.Trump later boarded the new Qatari-gifted Air Force One at 11:01 p.m., according to pool notes. The pool captured video of the president walking from one aircraft to the other.CNN’s Kaitlan Collins and photojournalist Khalil Abdallah noted that when they traveled as part of the pool covering Davos and had to turn around and board a new aircraft due to what officials described as a minor electrical issue, the White House did not allow the CNN crew to film Trump transferring between planes. Instead, the crew was instructed to wait until he had boarded the new aircraft.During the flight on the Qatari gifted plane, Trump was asked what prompted the aircraft switch.Trump had said the change was to give US service members stationed at the base “a chance to tour the Aircraft.” Pressed on whether there were any other issues, Trump quickly responded, “no issues.”Trump was also asked why reporters had been instructed to lower the window shades on the aircraft.He said it was “because you’re probably on a dangerous flight.”“They didn’t ask me to close mine, but if they did, I would’ve done it,” Trump added.“But if I go, you go. Right?” Trump said. “Perhaps someday you want to change professions”Trump ultimately landed at Joint Base Andrews and deplaned Air Force One at 1:23 am ET.“He saluted and quickly loaded into the Beast,” a pool note said.This story was updated with additional reporting.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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