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Gas is nearly $4 again and diesel just topped $5. It’s not what you think

By CNN

(CNN) — US gas prices have rocketed higher during the on-again, off-again war with Iran.

After a brief respite, the average price for gas has surged 15 cents in a week to $3.94 a gallon and appears headed north of $4 again. Diesel, which shows up in customers’ shipping costs, topped $5 a gallon again Thursday for the first time in 3 weeks, according to AAA.

It serves as a painful reminder of how the military conflict in the Persian Gulf has a direct effect on your wallet.

But it’s not quite that simple.

Rising fuel prices aren’t just a story about higher oil prices anymore. Gas and diesel prices have taken on a life of their own, divorced from whatever is going on in the Strait of Hormuz and America’s ability to extract concessions from Iran.

Whiplash

In the three weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was at least partially open, oil companies managed to get more than 200 million barrels of crude out of the Persian Gulf, briefly sending oil prices below pre-war levels. Gas and diesel prices fell too – but nowhere close to where they were before the war.

After the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States collapsed last week, oil prices shot higher, rising above $85 a barrel after hovering in the low $70 range the previous few weeks. That gain is a big deal for gas prices because crude makes up the vast majority of gasoline’s cost.

But oil prices are now up 16% since the start of the war, while gas and diesel have both risen more than 32% – double the oil market’s gains.

That huge imbalance has a little to do with market and trading dynamics – and a lot to do with the particularities of oil refining.

No matter how much oil came out of the strait during the brief moments of relative peace, that crude needed a place to go to make it into something useful. Refineries, which had already made their July plans when the MOU was signed, can’t ramp up or down their capacity with a turn of a dial.

The world’s refinery capacity was greatly diminished during the war: Iran damaged or destroyed 30 Middle Eastern refineries. That prevented a significant recovery after the MOU went into effect. Global refinery output fell by 3 million barrels at the peak of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and 2.1 million barrels of refining capacity remain offline, according to Natasha Kaneva, chief commodities economist at JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, in a totally different part of the world, refinery capacity has also taken a dramatic hit (literally). Ukraine has damaged so many Russian refineries with drone strikes that the world’s second-biggest exporter of diesel has stopped exporting fuel and has suddenly become a net importer, leading to a global diesel shortage.

America’s manufactured gas problem

The United States has the exact opposite problem: Its refineries have been running at 96% of capacity last month. US refineries processed their largest amount of crude in the second quarter since 2019.

But a record amount of American-produced fuel is heading overseas – in the form of jet fuel (for Europe) and diesel (for Asia and Australia) to help the world bridge the gap in fuel supplies.

That has sent US gasoline inventories to their lowest levels since 2012. At 210 million barrels, inventories are just 20 million above critical levels, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Inventories are just over 30 million barrels above the lows reached during Hurricane Katrina, where stations across the United States ran out of gas.

The share of US fuel for the American market is now falling while gas demand for summer travel is on the rise and diesel demand is about to peak as US farmers begin the fall harvest. Low supply and high demand are a recipe for high prices.

That has sent crack spreads – the profit margin US refineries make – to a record high. Gasoline crack spreads at US refineries are up 60% from a year ago and diesel and jet fuel crack spreads are more than double their 2025 levels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

But this summer’s extreme heat could pose an even bigger problem: Refineries need cool temperatures to operate efficiently. They need to boil the oil into its various constituents and cool it down to create gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products. If temperatures are too high, refineries struggle to do their job – and they can’t make as much gas.

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Millions of Americans with untreated high blood pressure should be taking medication

By CNN
Nearly 1 in 3 adults in the United States with untreated high blood pressure would benefit from treatment and are not getting it, according to a new study.That’s because nearly 10 million Americans now meet newly updated guidelines by the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology that redefine an adult’s risk for cardiovascular disease.“We estimated that approximately 200,900 all-cause deaths and 162,600 cardiovascular deaths could be prevented over the next 10 years,” said lead study author Dr. Mustafa Al-Jarshawi, a cardiologist at Keele University in England.Ideally, doctors want blood pressure to fall below 120 mmHg systolic and 80 mmHg diastolic. If blood pressure is around 130/80, doctors have typically advised people to make changes to their lifestyle, such as increasing exercise.If doctors use the American Heart Association’s new PREVENT tool, which considers blood sugar, kidney function and a person’s decade-long risk for heart disease as well as blood pressure, some 81 million Americans would be eligible for blood pressure medications.“What this is saying is that people who have traditionally not been at very high risk are now eligible to be treated with medications more aggressively,” said cardiologist Dr. Andrew Freeman, director of cardiovascular prevention and wellness at National Jewish Health in Denver.“Generally, I think when people have additional risk, blood pressure is really the silent killer,” said Freeman, who was not involved with the study.Expanding treatment could save livesThe study, published July 29 in the Journal of the American Heart Association, analyzed National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2009 to 2018. Newer data is available, but the most up-to-date version of the survey hasn’t been around long enough for researchers to know participants’ cause and time of death.The study examines how death rates might be lower if the 2025 hypertension guidelines were implemented during those years, Al-Jarshawi said.Among 81 million adults with high blood pressure and no cardiovascular disease, nearly 23 million may be newly eligible under the new guidelines. Of those 23 million, 9.7 million were untreated.Becoming eligible to receive blood pressure medication was associated with a 23% lower risk of dying compared with no treatment. When it comes to the chances of dying from a heart-related issue, risk dropped by 50%. The study also found that adults with diabetes would benefit most from treatment. This is because diabetes and high blood pressure often occur together, significantly increasing cardiovascular risk, Al-Jarshawi said.Treatment is more than a medicationAny eligible person shouldn’t hesitate to start taking medication in addition to making lifestyle changes to reduce long-term risks, Al-Jarshawi said.Controlling high blood pressure is a long-term commitment to health, CNN contributor Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and adjunct associate professor at George Washington University, told CNN in a previous article. She recommended looking into a key inventory of five daily habits: level of physical activity, diet, substance use including alcohol and marijuana, stress levels, and a healthy weight.“You don’t have to do everything perfectly to make a difference in your health,” Wen said. She suggests starting with small lifestyle changes. Many people can’t easily reduce stress in their lives, but maybe they can more easily start eating more fruits and vegetables.”The findings of the new study highlight the importance of controlling high blood pressure, Freeman said.“The western world is ailing from a variety of cardiometabolic, kidney diseases,” Freeman said. “High blood pressure amplifies a lot of risk, and we have to do whatever we can to get that risk down and being aggressive about blood pressure is very low-hanging fruit.”However, medication only works when it’s inside the person, and not sitting in the bottle unused, Freeman said. About half of adults in the US with high blood pressure don’t regularly take their prescribed medication, according to a July 2025 study published in the journal JAMA Cardiology.Freeman recommends trying to form a habit, such as keeping your pillbox next to an alarm or toothbrush. That way, when set an alarm for the morning or brush your teeth, you remember to also take the pills.“There’s a way to cue yourself and remind,” Freeman said. “For those people that forget, consider having a small supply in your purse or your wallet or your car, just so you can always remember to take it.”The study’s findings also highlight the need for physicians to be alert to early signs of disease and consider blood pressure treatment, even in younger people, according to Freeman.“We’re seeing a lot more young people now who have chronic disease and diabetes and other things that may be relatively mild, but still at risk, and we need to be even more aggressive,” Freeman said.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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