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Atlantic hurricane season is coming up. Here’s what NOAA predicts.

▶ Watch Video: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicted to be “below-average,” but don’t let your guard down

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and as coastal residents watch the forecast and wait to see what nature has in store, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing its outlook for the months ahead.

NOAA is predicting a below-average season this year, with eight to 14 named storms. Of them, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, agency officials announced Thursday.

They stressed that a below-average forecast should not keep people in hurricane-prone areas from taking it seriously and getting prepared.

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had Category 5 storms make landfall in the past during below average seasons.”

Jacobs and National Weather Service director Ken Graham praised technological advancements that, they said, will take storm preparedness to the next level.

“We’ve never been as prepared for hurricane season as we are now,” said Graham. NOAA encompasses the Weather Service, which directly handles hurricane forecasts.

NOAA estimates there’s currently a 55% chance that activity during hurricane season will be below-normal, a 35% chance it will be near-normal, and a 10% chance it will be above-normal, Jacobs added.

2026-nhc-forecast.png

Nikki Nolan/CBS News

A storm receives a name if its maximum sustained wind speeds reach at least 39 mph, and it becomes a hurricane if those winds climb to 74 mph. Hurricanes are classified as “major” when they reach wind speeds of at least 111 mph. That strength places them in Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale used to rate storm intensity.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking between August and October. That window tends to see the greatest number of storms develop, and a season’s most intense storms often develop in those months, too.

NOAA’s outlook will be updated several times throughout the summer to reflect any changes in the forecast over time.

How accurate was NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast?

NOAA’s hurricane predictions are generally fairly accurate, although not always exact. 

The agency’s 2025 outlook originally predicted last year’s hurricane season would include 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The forecast was adjusted slightly downward in August to predict 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. 

In the end, there were 13 named storms overall in 2025, including five hurricanes, four of which were major. 

Map shows the path of storms from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Map shows the path of storms from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

CBS News

That was a bit quieter than an average season, which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Impact of El Niño on 2026 hurricane season

The upcoming hurricane season may be influenced by the transition into El Niño, an oscillating climate pattern that affects weather conditions in the United States and has historically been associated with fewer Atlantic storms. 

However, as CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan wrote in a recent El Niño forecast, its emergence “does not necessarily mean that we won’t see any Atlantic hurricane systems — just statistically, there may be less than average.”

On the West Coast, the effect goes in the other direction: the warmer Pacific waters in an El Niño help enable tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific to develop and stay fully structured vertically. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said last week that there’s at least an 82% chance El Niño will arrive by July. Scientists are still monitoring conditions that will help them determine how strong it will be.

NOAA’s 2026 outlook is being released about six weeks after another major hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team. The CSU forecast predicted slightly less activity than usual in the Atlantic basin this year, with researchers estimating that the upcoming season would see 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Like NOAA, they will release updated forecasts periodically in the coming months.

2026-nhc-csu-forecast.png

Nikki Nolan/CBS News

2026 Atlantic hurricane season storm names

Every year, the World Meteorological Organization preemptively compiles a list of names that will be assigned to tropical storms and hurricanes that develop during the upcoming Atlantic season. The roster includes 21 names, each starting with a different letter of the alphabet. If more than 21 storms form in a single year, which happens occasionally, then a supplemental list of names will also be used.

Here’s the main list of names for 2026:

  • Arthur
  • Bertha
  • Cristobal
  • Dolly
  • Edouard
  • Fay
  • Gonzalo
  • Hanna
  • Isaias
  • Josephine
  • Kyle
  • Leah
  • Marco
  • Nana
  • Omar
  • Paulette
  • Rene
  • Sally
  • Teddy
  • Vicky
  • Wilfred

Nigel Farage wins election in which his main rival was a trash can

By CNN
(CNN) — When voters in the English seaside constituency of Clacton went to the polls on Thursday, they ostensibly had more choice than in any other election in British history.Thirty-four candidates stood in this by-election, the equivalent of a US special election, making the ballot paper 3 feet long. But almost all the country’s half-dozen major political parties declined to participate, with only the populist hard-right Reform UK party fielding a candidate – its leader Nigel Farage.Farage was ultimately re-elected by a substantial margin, winning 22,239 votes. He had declined to attend the results ceremony, citing a police warning about a campaign to disrupt it.His main opponent, Count Binface – a self-described intergalactic space warrior dressed as a trash can – won a creditable 9,455 votes.But this election, rather than helping to solve Farage’s problems as he perhaps hoped, has only added to them.The country’s chief anti-immigrant activist and Brexit architect, Farage was already the member of parliament (MP) for Clacton but resigned from parliament – triggering the by-election – after facing unprecedented scrutiny over his finances. Those challenging him were Binface and 32 other fringe or novelty candidates.The spectacle promptly became an object of ridicule, derided as a “circus” by commentators, while the claims over Reform’s finances refuse to go away. At the same time, Farage faces both a split in his natural coalition of voters and a more formidable opponent in Britain’s new center-left prime minister, Andy Burnham. Such headwinds are unfamiliar for Reform, which had previously been in the ascendancy, leading national opinion polls and enjoying historic gains in local elections.Novelty candidatesFarage resigned as Clacton’s MP six weeks ago, as a steady drumbeat of allegations surrounding his and his party’s financing forced him to confront questions he hadn’t previously had to answer in his political career.He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, and said: “I’ve decided the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions” when triggering the by-election.Farage sought to frame the contest as him taking on the establishment. But, said Tim Bale, a professor at Queen Mary University of London who studies right-wing politics, “it’s not worked because the other political parties … declared they wouldn’t stand, meaning the … framing has been him versus a bunch of novelty candidates.”And holding an election has opened Farage to criticism over its cost, which is expected to be around £250,000 ($338,000). The public is legally bound to pay that, despite Farage’s protestations that Reform would foot the bill.Before Farage resigned, he was facing an investigation by the parliamentary standards committee and that inquiry will resume now he has been re-elected. If it finds he breached parliamentary guidelines, that will trigger a process which could ultimately lead to another by-election. The other major parties would be expected to field candidates in that vote.Challenge from the rightWhile Farage is caught in this election spin-cycle, the grip he holds over his voter base is also faltering. Reform is now facing a challenge from its right flank as the newly established party Restore Britain – founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe – siphons off a small but significant portion of voters.Lowe, who has a longstanding feud with Farage, was forced out of the party last year and subsequently started his own, egged on by US billionaire businessman Elon Musk. Now sensing an opening, Lowe has sought to form an alliance with Farage, conditioned on Farage accepting some of Restore’s more extreme policies. Farage has not so far appeared keen to bury the hatchet.“A pact would be tricky because Restore’s policies are so extreme that adopting them would make Reform less attractive to voters who aren’t really into the whole far-right package,” Bale told CNN.All this comes against the backdrop of a new national government. Labour leader Burnham is more popular than his predecessor Keir Starmer and has already proven his ability to take on Reform during his successful return to parliament earlier this summer.In this by-election, Farage has only proven his ability to defeat an intergalactic space warrior with an upturned trash can on his head. Of course, Count Binface is not actually from space; he is a satirical character created by the comedian Jon Harvey, and has stood in several other elections.“Until August 13th, I want it to be absolutely clear that there is nowhere at all that matters to me more in the cosmos than Clacton,” he told CNN’s Max Foster from his “starship,” which he said he had transformed using a holodeck “to create the precise look of a budget hotel in Clacton.” Farage did not respond to an interview request from CNN.Binface’s manifesto is packed with national in-jokes, like promising to “cut your taxes, and raise everyone else’s,” nationalize the singer Adele and impose a “windfall tax on cosy crime novels written (or ‘written’) by celebrities.”Outlandish costumesBinface is just one in a long line of satirical candidates dating back more than six decades, who have become a unique staple of British elections. Almost anyone can run for parliament in the UK – only a £500 ($675) deposit and 10 supporters of the bid are needed – allowing for people to make their joke, or point, without too much trouble.The tradition took hold in 1963, when a young musician later known as Screaming Lord Sutch stood in a by-election. He would contest 41 parliamentary seats in all, including against three sitting prime ministers, and founded the Official Monster Raving Loony Party in 1982, according to its website.None of the party’s candidates — think Nick the Incredible Flying Brick and its current leader, Howling Laud Hope — have ever been elected to Westminster. But it inspired others to follow in its footsteps, and its three candidates in Clacton together took 61 votes.Behind the jokes, some campaigns have carried serious messages, like a man dressed as a fox advocating for animal rights who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Burnham when the former Manchester mayor returned to parliament in June.Several of the late Sutch’s policies, such as lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 and legalizing commercial radio, were eventually enacted. Still, some have derided the spectacle of novelty candidates.As for Binface, his vow to be a unity candidate was not enough to win, despite his pre-vote bravado.The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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