DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Voters in Guinea will head to the polls on Sunday for the West African nation’s first presidential election since the military took power in a 2021 coup, with analysts predicting a likely win for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.
Guinea is one of 10 African countries where soldiers have seized power since 2020, with some going on to win elections after delaying a return to democracy.
Since ousting President Alpha Condé four years ago, Gen. Doumbouya has clamped down on the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him with no strong challenge to win a seven-year term in Sunday’s election.
Despite its rich mineral resources — including as the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum — over half of Guinea’s 15 million people are experiencing “unprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity,” according to the World Food Program.
About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.
The West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS has deployed an election observation mission ahead of the vote.
A weak opposition
Nine candidates are running, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Condé and who has promised governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth.
Two opposition candidates, former prime minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.
Some view vote with skepticism
In the capital, Conakry, there are mixed feelings about whether the election will reflect the voters’ wishes.
It will be held under a new constitution that revoked a ban on military leaders running for office and extended the presidential mandate from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum that opposition parties called for voters to boycott.
There is little hope that the vote will truly mark a return to electoral democracy, said Alioune Tine, founder of Afrikajom Center, a West African political think tank.
“It’s an election without the main opposition leaders and that is taking place in a context where civic space is heavily restricted,” Tine said. “The vote is mostly designed to legitimize Doumbouya’s grip on power.”
Mamadou Bhoye Diallo, a restaurant owner in Conakry, said he won’t vote and called the election a “farce.”
“When a candidate is also the referee, can we expect a miracle?” Diallo wondered. “Major parties are sidelined and their leaders are in exile. You call that an election?” he added.
In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has since the coup seen civil society leaders silenced, critics abducted and the press censored. Last year, authorities dissolved more than 50 political parties in a move it claimed was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.
Mixed reactions to first election since coup
But Doumbouya enjoys goodwill among many Guineans persuaded by his vows of a prosperous Guinea. The leader has built his campaign around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.
Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image, praised the leader as a champion of youth.
“In four years, he has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” the 18-year-old said, citing digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.
The junta’s other infrastructure projects include Simandou, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit, which the military government is promoting as a cornerstone of economic transformation. After decades of delays, it began production last month.
Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
Doumbouya’s campaign, marked by large rallies and extensive media coverage, has dominated the political landscape, with state media and administrative support giving him a significant advantage over rivals with limited resources.