Wild weather is nothing new for the D.C. area. One day it’s snowing, another day it’s humid and rainy, another day (like Sunday) is on the chilly side with a heaping of crazy wind gusts that can shut down regional bridges.
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Weather, by its very definition, is all about changes in our atmosphere — but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy thing to predict.
And forecasters are looking at what could be round three of a monster winter storm this week.
“In this area, of course, we’ve got the geographical area with the mountains, the bay, the ocean,” 7News First Alert Senior Meteorologist Veronica Johnson told WTOP.
“When you’re forecasting days out, it’s so much of a challenge because of the complex storm intensities. So what do I mean by that? I mean days out, it’s hard to tell how much cold air is going to be coming into a system, how much moisture, how much wind, or what direction those winds are going to be coming into the storm system, as well as the storm intensity.”
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Johnson noted that any weather system, as well as snow that might come with it this week, is particularly sensitive to temperature fluctuations.
“Around this area, we can ride the line of getting freezing rain, sleet, snow or all rain. And, of course, when you’ve got the sleet and the freezing rain and rain that can cut down on the snow amounts,” Johnson said.
A lot of it comes down to the algorithms and storm model guidance and what meteorologists look at in forecasting.
Johnson said that some weather models that look at the atmosphere in three dimension are better at temperature forecasts, while some are better at precipitation forecasts, and meteorologists also rely on a simulation of the atmosphere.
But the further out you get in a forecast, “the more uncertainty there is,” she said.
“I like to tell folks when they go, ‘Hey, you guys, you know, you got it wrong. You know, really changed in a big way,’” Johnson said.
“If these weather models were so great at spitting out exactly what was going to happen … that’s what we would be using to win the lottery if we wanted. But it’s not.”
Johnson suggests having a plan to deal with any storms that might be on the way — but also be ready to adjust, as needed.
“As you get closer to the time frame when the storm is going to hit, say, 24 to 48 hours, it does become more reliable — the information,” Johnson said.
“There’s still some uncertainty 24 to 48 hours out, but the forecasts are within a couple of inches, and won’t be varying a whole lot … 24 hours out, you’re looking at storm forecasts with the exact amounts for particular areas of what might fall you’re looking at the timing being more fine tuned, and, of course, the impacts of that storm system.”
Of course, that’s why WTOP and 7News are here.
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