November has been fairly warm across the D.C. area, and it seems those unseasonably warm days may just be setting the stage for what this winter has in store.
Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer is out with his annual winter weather forecast, but it doesn’t come with much hope for a white Christmas.
“It’s not looking like a good winter for us snow lovers,” said Kammerer.
His forecast is calling for 2 to 6 inches of snow for the season near D.C., but he wouldn’t be surprised if the snowfall total is 1 to 2 inches once all is said and done. Some areas well west of D.C. may see up to a foot of snow.
Some of the things that factored into Kammerer’s forecast include the current phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact the weather around the globe. Right now, Kammerer said, we are seeing the third year in a row of a La Niña phase, which brings colder water to the ocean’s surface.
“That’s one reason why five of the last six winters have been below average as far as snowfall is concerned,” said Kammerer.
Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska in the Northern Pacific are on the cooler side right now. And in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, water temperatures are warmer than usual for this time of year. Kammerer said those water temperatures, which impact the jet stream, also point to less snow this winter.
Kammerer said one other thing he examines is the snowfall in Siberia.
“How much snow is in Siberia in the month of October normally has a fairly pretty, fairly good correlation to the amount of cold and snow we can get during our winter months here,” Kammerer said.
Looking at winters past, Kammerer said, this could be among the warmest, similar to the winters of 1976-1977 and 2011-2012.
“I really do think this could be one of the warmest winters ever recorded in our area,” Kammerer said.
As hopes of building a snowman and having a snowball fight may seem somewhat dashed, Kammerer said the best chance for snow would be in January and February. In December, there will be precipitation falling from the sky, but you’ll probably need an umbrella to endure it.
“It looks like It’s going to be a very wet Christmas, not a white Christmas,” Kammerer said.
Kammerer, who loves the snow, won’t say a big snow won’t happen, because one happened in 1996 during a La Niña winter. But he said the chances of that happening this winter are very small.
“This is one of those forecasts that I actually hope I’m wrong,” Kammerer said.
