(CNN) — The next battles over the Democratic Party’s ideological direction come Tuesday in a slate of primaries that includes showdowns in two upper Midwestern political battlegrounds.
Francesca Hong, a 37-year-old democratic socialist state legislator and former chef and restaurant owner, is widely favored to win her party’s nomination in the Wisconsin governor’s race — setting up a high-stakes test of how a swing state electorate might react to the party’s shift leftward this fall, as the 2028 Democratic presidential primary looms.
“I am tired of people telling us when we get to have change, how much change we get to have,” Hong told supporters Monday. “That incrementalism is irresponsible. We deserve so much better. You deserve so much better and together we are going to make better possible.”
It’s one of several key races that could affect the political landscape in November, when Democrats need wins up and down the ballot in the upper Midwest and elsewhere as they seek to win House and Senate majorities.
The week after Michigan voters narrowly chose the more progressive candidate in a Senate primary, voters in Minnesota will face a similar choice in their state’s Senate primary. A southwestern Wisconsin congressional primary features a similar ideological split. And in Connecticut, the Democratic divide is less over ideology than the question of whether the party needs generational change.
Republicans, meanwhile, will be closely watching South Carolina, where a special Senate primary is the latest test of whether GOP voters remain in lockstep with President Donald Trump.
Here are some of the key primaries to watch Tuesday:
Will Wisconsin Democrats pick a democratic socialist for governor?
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ decision not to seek a third term has paved the way for one of the party’s most chaotic primaries this year. As Hong surged, moderates flailed, failing to rally around an alternative. Both of Evers’ lieutenant governors — Mandela Barnes, who held the role in his first term, and Sara Rodriguez, who is in office now — dropped out of the race in July.
David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, dropped out of the race in early July. But after Rodriguez’s exit amid a campaign finance scandal, he reentered 10 days later, this time with Evers’ backing.
Awaiting the winner in November is Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican who is backed by Trump and has vastly outraised both Hong and Crowley.
One question looming over the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary’s final stretch has been whether Hong — who has appeared frequently in television interviews across outlets of all political persuasions — is ready for more intense scrutiny.
With some Democrats already concerned about her support for left-wing issues like defunding the police, she’s faced fresh backlash in recent days over a meandering answer last week in a CNN interview when asked about a 2020 tweet in which she advocated for canceling Thanksgiving because the holiday is “celebrating colonialism.”
Tracy Lewis of Madison said she feared the dustup over Thanksgiving will haunt Hong for the duration of the campaign if she wins the primary.
“I just feel sometimes like she’s not ready for prime time,” said Lewis, who is supporting Crowley after other candidates left the race. “It’s ridiculous. I don’t know what she was thinking about that.”
Karen Neff said she couldn’t believe when she heard about Hong’s back-and-forth on Thanksgiving.
“It’s dumb for that to be out there. We all love Thanksgiving,” Neff said. “Everybody goes home for Thanksgiving. When are you going to fight with your family if you don’t have Thanksgiving?”
Asked about the Thanksgiving comment that she has since walked back, Hong told CNN: “I had some bad takes and some hot takes on Twitter, but like all everyday Wisconsinites, I had to express my frustrations that the system wasn’t working for us.”
How early voting could hurt Crowley’s chances
The turbulent last month of the gubernatorial primary, which saw Barnes and Rodriguez drop out and Crowley reactive his campaign, may leave some Democratic voters who cast their ballot early in Wisconsin out of luck.
“I already voted absentee, but now we move on,” said Mike Connell, a Democratic voter from Madison who came to see Crowley as he stopped by the Majestic Theatre on a final push before Tuesday’s primary.
Tens of thousands of Wisconsin voters cast early ballots before the field was set, officials said, creating a scenario for which there is no recourse.
“Once an absentee ballot has been returned to the municipal clerk, it cannot be spoiled and reissued for any reason,” the Wisconsin Elections Commissions explained.
A longtime adviser to Wisconsin Democrats said the early voting dilemma could have real consequences for Crowley’s attempt to catch up with Hong’s momentum, telling CNN: “It could be an entirely different race, without the early votes that were already in.”
Setting stage for key Minnesota races
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, stunned the political world when he announced he would not seek reelection.
But there’s little drama in who Democrats will nominate to succeed him: Sen. Amy Klobuchar is all but certain to win the primary. She’ll take on whoever emerges from a nine-candidate Republican field that includes prominent 2020 election denier Mike Lindell, the pillow pitch man endorsed by Trump.
The bigger question mark comes in the race to replace the state’s other prominent Democrat senator who is retiring, Sen. Tina Smith.
That Democratic primary pits Rep. Angie Craig against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, in another moderate versus progressive showdown. Craig’s roster of supporters includes Buttigieg, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz. Flanagan, meanwhile, is backed by a number of prominent progressives, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Craig and her allies have outraised and outspent Flanagan in the primary.
On the Republican side, the field of nine contenders includes former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, former NBA player Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze. Tafoya has vastly outraised the other candidates.
Can Trump carry Graham’s sister to victory?
Trump encouraged South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to tap Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline Graham to fill the late Republican senator’s seat for the remainder of his term after he died last month.
But Graham was on the ballot this November, and now — with Trump’s encouragement and endorsement — his sister is competing Tuesday in a special primary to replace him and seek a full six-year term herself.
The wide-open primary features several prominent Republicans, including two members of Congress, Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, as well as former Gov. Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch, who lost the primary to Lindsey Graham earlier this year.
If no candidate tops 50%, the top two finishers will advance to an August 25 runoff — a scenario that seems likely headed into Tuesday’s contest.
The race is the latest test of Trump’s sway over the Republican electorate. He started the year on a roll, steamrolling a handful of Indiana state senators who had defied his redistricting wishes, an intra-party critic in Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie and two GOP senators, Louisiana’s Bill Cassidy and Texas’ John Cornyn. Since then, though, candidates he has endorsed have faltered in several races — including South Carolina’s gubernatorial primary, where Trump’s initial pick, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, lost to state Attorney General Alan Wilson.
Generational change in Connecticut?
Rep. John Larson, 78, has represented Connecticut for 14 terms in the House — and on Tuesday he faces a slate of challengers making the case for generational change within the Democratic Party.
Incumbent House members facing serious primaries is unprecedented in Connecticut, and Larson argues on the campaign trail that his seniority positions him to deliver for the deep-blue 1st District and the state much more effectively than a newcomer could.
But former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin says the party needs a new direction and a greater sense of urgency to defeat what he says is an unprecedented level of corruption on the part of the Trump administration.
Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary and all-but-certain 2028 Democratic presidential contender, has waded into the race, endorsing Bronin. So has VoteVets, which said it spent nearly $1 million in advertising for Bronin.
Though Bronin is expected to be Larson’s strongest challenger, there are two other Democrats in the primary: Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune and state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest.
An ideologically divided Driftless Area
Wisconsin’s 3rd District features another moderate-versus-progressive Democratic match-up, with the party’s voters choosing a nominee to take on Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in what could be the state’s most competitive House race.
Rebecca Cooke, a moderate who came less than three percentage points from unseating Van Orden in what’s likely to have been a less politically favorable year for Democrats in 2024, faces progressive Emily Berge, the former Eau Claire city council president.
Cooke, who has broad Democratic establishment backing, has distanced herself from left-leaning policies like defunding the police and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Berge advocates for Medicare for All, which Cooke suggested may be politically improbable and says a Democratic House majority would be more likely to focus on more achievable aims like extending Affordable Care Act tax credits. Berge says she would vote to impeach Trump, while Cooke has stopped short of saying she would do so.
The gubernatorial primary could be a factor in the race, with Berge potentially benefitting from a strong performance by Hong.
The district, in southwestern Wisconsin, includes most of the state’s portion of what’s known as the Driftless Area — a unique geographic region of steep hills, deep valleys and clear rivers and streams that wasn’t flattened by glaciers like most of the Midwest in the last Ice Age.
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