(CNN) — Hawaii is bracing for a tropical storm that threatens to bring heavy rain, damaging wind and dangerous surf to the islands this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms roughly 800 miles southeast of the Big Island strengthened into Tropical Storm Lala early Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. Eastern parts of the state are already under a hurricane watch, through Friday afternoon, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 hours. Lala is forecast to be near hurricane strength with sustained winds of 70 mph within the next several days.
The storm’s exact path and strength remain uncertain, but it would dodge a rare landfall on its current forecast track. It is expected to be near the Big Island on Saturday, and pass south of the smaller islands on Sunday.
Confidence in the exact track should improve closer to the weekend once the storm is more organized.
Landfalls on the Hawaiian islands have only happened a handful of times in the modern record. The last tropical system to make landfall was Tropical Storm Olivia in 2018, which came ashore on Maui — that island’s first landfall since recordkeeping began in the 1950s.
But storms that pass just south of the islands can have a similar or even greater impact than a direct hit: When surface winds and the storm’s track point in the same direction, they can combine forces and drive more water and wind onshore.
Hurricane Hone took a similar path in 2024, passing just 50 miles south of the Big Island. It pushed waves as high as 18 feet onto the coast and dumped over 20 inches of rain.
Rainfall poses the most serious threat as Lala moves west, especially to the island of Hawaii where confidence in significant impacts is higher. More than 8 inches of rain are possible on Maui and forecasts are calling for well over a foot of rain on the Big Island through Sunday. The heaviest totals are likely on the islands’ eastern slopes, where mountainous terrain forces air upward and squeezes out heavy rainfall like a sponge.
The Big Island will be the first to see heavy rain, beginning Friday. It will spread to Maui on Saturday and reach Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai by Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.
Lala is forecast to reach just below hurricane strength with sustained winds of 70 mph within the next several days. The Big Island is at the greatest risk of Lala’s strongest winds with the storm’s center forecast to pass just south of the island. Winds at that strength can down trees and power lines and cause power outages, a risk made worse by rain-saturated soil that makes trees easier to topple.
Waves will grow as the storm approaches and potentially reach over 10 feet, although timing and exact heights remain uncertain.
“This is the time to prepare, not panic,” Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said, as officials across the state urge residents to check emergency supplies, review family plans and stay informed in the coming days.
A developing Super El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year. Warmer ocean temperatures and weaker storm-killing upper-level winds in the region make it easier for storms to form and strengthen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 tropical cyclones expected.
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.