(CNN) — After a major primary day this week in Michigan and other states, the battle for the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms has largely taken shape.
And increasingly … it’s complicated.
Elections are always messier the closer you get to November, with late developments that seem to come out of nowhere. There’s a reason the phrase “October Surprise” is a thing.
But that’s especially been the case in recent weeks. While Democrats’ uphill battle to win the Senate majority has become more fraught and uncertain, the GOP’s uphill battle to hold the House is running into its own very pronounced headaches.
So while the fundamentals have appeared pretty consistent for a while – Democrats have a clear advantage and chance to flip both chambers thanks to President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity – the localized variables are starting to loom large.
The El-Sayed effect
First, let’s tackle that Senate majority math.
The biggest midterm news Tuesday – and arguably of the last few months – was left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in the Michigan Democratic primary.
The former public health official, whom the Democratic establishment desperately tried to help Rep. Haley Stevens defeat, is now in a position that the Bernie Sanders wing of the party has really never been in before: trying to win a crucial general election race in a battleground state.
Whether a candidate like El-Sayed can win a state like Michigan carries major implications for how big a force the Democratic Party’s left flank can be in the coming years.
But in the near term, the question is whether El-Sayed might jeopardize a race that Democrats probably need to win to have a shot at the Senate majority.
The jury is still very much out on that.
There is a school of thought that a more exciting and compelling candidate like him could turn out the base more than a candidate like Stevens. And even if El-Sayed does underperform, it’s possible the environment will simply be good enough for Democrats to pull him across the line. Recent history suggests that, absent major personal scandal, merely being extreme on issues generally costs candidate in the low-to-mid single digits.
But Republicans on Wednesday were gleefully pointing to things like El-Sayed’s ties to controversial left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and his sharp comments criticizing Israel, which could conceivably turn off significant portions of the Democratic coalition. They also suggestively cited his full name, clearly seeking to stoke anti-Muslim sentiment – which, while ugly and xenophobic, polling suggests could be effective.
What’s pretty evident: Stevens would have been the safer pair of hands in a good Democratic year.
The upshot is that the path through Michigan is probably more uncertain for Democrats now. And that sudden uncertainty has become a trend. In addition to El-Sayed’s nomination, both the Graham Platner fiasco in Maine and Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman’s flirtation with a party switch have become unwelcome variables potentially making Democrats’ difficult Senate math closer to unworkable.
Democrats need to flip four GOP seats to take the Senate majority and a tough map already means at least two of them would have to be in states where Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Having any of these variables go against them would mean they would increase that latter number to three or more.
On the plus side for Senate Democrats
All of that said, some of the recently introduced variables could still help Democrats by expanding the map.
Polls show them running very competitive in four of those red states – Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. They also got an intriguing nominee in deep-red Kansas on Tuesday in pastor Adam Hamilton.
And the exit of the Democratic nominee in South Dakota on Tuesday now makes it three states – along with Idaho and Nebraska – where the party’s nominee has stepped aside in favor of an independent candidates who might have better shot at beating Republicans.
The efficacy of that independent strategy remains in doubt. And these independent candidates tend to poll better than they actually perform, as I wrote in 2024. But these are states that are probably off the table otherwise – so even just making Republicans sweat a bit could be a win.
All of that said, the Democratic establishment would probably trade all of these longshot opportunities just to have Stevens as their nominee against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in November.
The House GOP’s growing personal mess
But even as the Senate has become more fraught for Democrats, the House is looking a lot messier for Republicans.
The personal scandals of Reps. Max Miller of Ohio, Chuck Edwards of North Carolina and Cory Mills of Florida increasingly threaten to not just put their marginally competitive seats in-play (Trump won all three districts by around 10 points in 2024), but also to cast a pall over the GOP’s efforts to hold the House.
Edwards bowed out of his reelection bid early Wednesday morning after a House Ethics Committee report found he made unwanted advances toward young female staffers. But GOP leaders have struggled mightily to figure out what to do about uglier allegations against Miller and Mills, both of whom have been accused of domestic abuse, among other misdeeds.
All three men have denied the most serious allegations they face.
The Miller situation is especially difficult given the ex-wife who accuses him of abuse is the daughter of GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, causing what was already an ugly family drama to spill even more into politics. This, and Miller’s increasingly bizarre personal response, has made it more difficult for GOP lawmakers to craft a cogent response.
While these are just a few seats, Republicans made great pains to try to help themselves lock down as many districts as possible by redistricting in a bunch of states this year. But in spite of those efforts, a bunch of other seats that would normally be safe have crept into the potentially competitive column – so much so that Democrats appear increasing favorites to win the House.
In fact, as the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter noted this week, it’s all looking a lot like the Democratic wave of 2006.
There’s a historically unpopular president (back then, George W. Bush) and war in the Middle East (back then, Iraq), a “generic ballot” that favors Democrats by a similar and significant number (the mid-to-high single digits) and, now, a growing volume of lawmaker scandals that are testing GOP leaders’ ability to manage them (back then, Mark Foley and Don Sherwood).
Republicans would really prefer the outcome not be like 2006.
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