(CNN) — The Republican Party’s response to questions about the continued economic pain ahead of the 2026 midterm elections is now essentially: A noun, a verb and “Joe Biden.”
But President Donald Trump can’t stop undermining this blame-Biden strategy — and giving his party major new headaches.
He’s made several economy-shaking moves that not only risk the GOP’s 2026 hopes, but also link the state of the economy directly to him and his party.
In recent days, Trump has doubled down on an all-out “economic D-Day” against Iran that could drag into the closing weeks of the election, announced a major intervention into the beef market that could harm the domestic industry and now launched what appears to be a real trade war with Canada.
All three appear to be giving at least some in his party heartburn about what they could mean for the 2026 election.
And the latter moves could cause the GOP problems in some key states with crucial Senate races.
The big question with the Iran strategy: Is it actually a good strategy or is it just the strategy that the administration has left, after military strikes failed to force Iran to capitulate?
Regardless, it’s a strategy that likely brings the war and its domestic harm to the US economy (read: $4 per gallon gasoline) dangerously close to when Americans will be voting. The election is just 71 days away, and it will take time to figure out whether all-out economic pressure on Iran will pay dividends.
And this is a war that the administration predicted would last four to six weeks when it began in late February. The whole thing has led to increased grumbling and uncertainty among Republicans about a prolonged war endangering their House and Senate majorities.
Adding to that political anxiety are two other recent economic moves by Trump, which could play significantly in some important states.
First came Trump’s decision to try to alleviate high beef prices by temporarily pausing tariffs on imported beef, and allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported tariff-free for the next 90 days.
The move has been pretty roundly lambasted by US cattle producers. It’s also been criticized by GOP senators in some top cattle-producing states, whose industries could suffer. And some of them feature key Senate races.
The two top cattle-producing states are Nebraska and Texas, which are both hosting significant Senate races in 2026. Nebraska GOP Sen. Deb Fischer, who is not up for reelection in her state, said on X that she was “extremely disappointed” in Trump’s move.
Iowa is in the top 10 in that category and also has a competitive open Senate race this year. There, GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley said he was “concerned for the cattle markets” and cited the recent closure of a Tyson beef plant just across the Iowa-Illinois border in Joslin, Illinois.
And perhaps the most unwelcome new Trump move is his ramped-up 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. This risks a pitched trade war with the US’ northern neighbor that could raise prices at a very bad time for the GOP.
It could also raise prices more in some states Republicans particularly want to keep happy — i.e. more key Senate races in states that border Canada and trade extensively in it. In fact, four of the six states rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report border Canada: Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio.
Maine’s Susan Collins, the only GOP senator up for reelection in a state Trump lost in 2024 and therefore a top Democratic target, said Saturday tariffs “will increase costs for Maine families” and that the whiplash of trade negotiations is causing “higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine businesses.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last month when asked about the potential 50% Canada tariffs that he was “not a huge fan of tariffs as a general rule” and said he had not seen a “rationale” for them.
But even beyond the impact on specific states, the moves jeopardize the GOP’s broader economic message — trying to pass the buck onto Biden.
It’s become abundantly clear that the stock GOP talking point on questions about persistent inflation and poor jobs numbers is to cite the Biden administration and the lingering effects of its purported economic mismanagement. Inflation peaked even higher back during Biden’s term (and that was also the case throughout the world amid the Covid-19 pandemic).
The administration’s strategy of blaming economic ills on the former president dates back to last year. But it has become much more conspicuous both in the frequency of its usage and because of the large amount of time elapsed since Biden was actually president (now more than 19 months).
But Trump already undercut that message by launching his global tariffs early in his second term and then the Iran war back in February — two major actions that made it very simple for people to connect whatever happened with the economy and inflation specifically to him.
What’s more, Trump already accepted ownership of the economy. He told NBC News early this year that it was now the “Trump economy.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in September 2025 that the “economy that Donald Trump owns starts at the end of this year” — i.e. when the calendar turned to 2026.
And voters seem to agree. A Reuters-Ipsos poll in February showed that majorities of Americans said Trump would be more responsible for major economic problems, while very few said Biden would be more responsible.
Now Trump is doubling down on the same types of major economic interventions that led people to those conclusions, with just more than two months until the midterms.
The-CNN-Wire
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