(CNN) — Few factors have loomed over American politics for the past decade like President Donald Trump’s sway over his base.
Lacking in broad popularity, the conventional wisdom has long been that Trump commands such intense devotion from a large swath of his base that it renders him a powerful force.
There is increasing reason to believe this conventional wisdom no longer applies.
A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll is merely the latest data point suggesting Trump’s devoted base has not only shrunk significantly, but is now historically pretty small.
The Post-Ipsos poll shows just 15% of Americans said they strongly approved of Trump — a number that translates to fewer than 1 in every 6 people. That’s a record low in the poll’s history.
For context, past Post and Post-ABC polls indicated that after his inauguration and in February 2025, 27% of Americans strongly approved of Trump. And in the days after the divisive January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, that number was also 27%.
Other notable points from the new poll:
- For the first time in the pollster’s data, significantly more of his supporters approved of him only “somewhat” (22%) rather than “strongly” (15%).
- Just 41% of Republicans and 43% of 2024 Trump voters approved of him strongly.
- And just 6% of independents approved of him strongly — compared to 51% who disapproved strongly.
- Even among what is supposed to be Trump’s most important demographic — White voters who didn’t graduate from college — just 24% strongly approved of him.
The poll is not some fluke. In fact, it’s at least the fourth high-quality recent poll to show the percentage who strongly approve of Trump falling into the mid-teens.
While the latest Quinnipiac University poll showed 27% strongly approved of Trump (in that case, of registered voters), other polls have pegged that number significantly lower. In those other polls, it’s been at 21% (NPR-PBS-Marist), 20% (Fox News), 19% (AP-NORC), 16% (Marquette Law School), 15% (Post-Ipsos) and 14% (Reuters-Ipsos).
Some of these are record lows. Others are close to where Trump was at early in his first term.
But in most of the recent high-quality polls, the percentage of Americans who strongly approve of Trump is between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5.
That hardly depicts a man with an iron fist over a large-scale political movement. He might have been able to unseat some fellow Republicans in low-turnout primaries, which tend to be dominated by the most passionate voters. But very few Americans see what Trump is doing and strongly support it.
Another significant point: Historically speaking, the size of Trump’s devoted base just isn’t that big.
It’s only slightly bigger, in fact, than Joe Biden’s was late in his tenure, when CNN polling showed 11% strongly approved of Biden and Reuters-Ipsos polling pegged the number at 12%.
Obama’s strongly approve numbers occasionally fell into the teens at his lowest points, but that was rare. In fact, it happened only once in Washington Post-ABC polling, when it hit 18%. Obama was mostly in the high 20s or low 30s — about double where Trump is now.
And George W. Bush’s strongly approve numbers didn’t fall into the mid-teens until midway through his sixth year in office, in 2006. By the end, some polls showed his number actually falling into the single digits.
Trump isn’t that low yet. But this is just the latest evidence that his base isn’t what it’s cracked up to be — or at least what it used to be.
There’s been polling for months now that indicated many Republicans disapproved of Trump on key issues, that a growing number of his voters second-guessed or even regretted their votes for him in 2024 and that his support with White, working-class voters was also waning.
But, arguably, what matters most is the sheer number of people who say they really like what he’s doing. And that’s a vanishingly small portion of the American public right now.
The-CNN-Wire
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