SEVERE WEATHER COAST TO COAST: HEAT, FLOODS, FIRES (4AMET)
(CNN) — Life-threatening flooding is underway in southern Texas, including in the same areas of the Hill Country hit by last July’s deadly and devastating floods.
A flash flood emergency – the highest level of warning – covers over 6,000 people along the Guadalupe River in Kerr and Kendall County, Texas, until 12:30 p.m. ET. It includes Center Point, Comfort, Kerrville and Sisterdale, all areas devastated by last year’s deadly Fourth of July floods that killed more than 100 people on the Guadalupe River.
“A large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River” and the river is “expected to reach a crest similar to the July 4, 2025, catastrophic river flood,” the warning said.
A river gauge in Center Point, between Kerrville and Comfort, showed a rise of 32 feet in four hours. The river is predicted to crest in major flood at 35.6 feet in Comfort around 9 a.m. ET. That would be on par with its level there last July 4.
A flash flood emergency also was issued earlier Thursday for more than 45,000 people upstream in Kerr County, where last year’s devastating floods killed 25 girls and two counselors at Camp Mystic.
This week’s relentless rain, up to 20 inches so far, has led to dozens of water rescues in the region. About half a year’s worth of rain has already fallen in Uvalde County, one of the hardest-hit areas so far.
A flash flood emergency was also issued for more than 20,000 people in Uvalde County on Thursday morning as heavy rain once again stalled out over the area.
At least 36 people had been pulled from floodwater in Uvalde County through Tuesday. Those impacted by significant flooding in Uvalde are under mandatory evacuation orders, the Uvalde Police Department said Wednesday.
“We are dealing with and responding to a flood that is likely going to break records in Texas history,” Gov. Greg Abbott said at a news conference Wednesday evening after issuing a disaster declaration for 59 counties on Tuesday. There have been no reported fatalities, he added.
More than 75 people have been rescued from rising floodwaters across the state, according to the governor. At the peak on Wednesday afternoon, 114 roads in Texas were flooded, according to the Texas Department of Transportation.
A flash flood emergency was issued on Wednesday for more than 25,000 people in Boerne, Texas, around 30 miles northwest of San Antonio. Cibolo Creek, which runs through Boerne, overflowed, flooding one of the main roads through town, the National Weather Service said. Authorities there have responded to over 109 calls for service and conducted 36 water rescues, city officials said at a news conference Wednesday. Another 53 people — including those evacuated from two apartment complexes — were moved to shelters.
“This is a life-threatening weather event. I don’t want to mince words about how serious this situation is,” Chris Shadrock, the director of communications and civic engagement for the city, said.
Another flash flood emergency was issued for residents of D’Hanis, Texas, around 50 miles west of San Antonio. Medina County and the city of Hondo established a shelter for D’Hanis residents who evacuate. Multiple additional rescues were carried out in Medina County.
The National Weather Service warned Seco Creek was “rising rapidly” before it began to recede later Wednesday, the city of Hondo said.
Multiple locations on rivers and creeks are in major flood stage — the highest possible level — with three more predicted to join them when they crest over the next 24 hours.
Abbott said Wednesday some Texans are expected to see “more rain than what occurred during the flood last year” on July 4, 2025, but the floodwater is not predicted to rise as rapidly.
“We’re better prepared than we have ever been to deal with weather events in general, but rainfall events and flooding events in particular,” Abbott said, adding that sirens have been installed at campgrounds in the Guadalupe River area.
The storms also spawned a tornado near Interstate 10 in the northwest San Antonio area around 8 a.m. CT on Wednesday. The San Antonio Fire Department is assessing multiple properties at a shopping center for damage, but no injuries have been reported, city officials said.
More extreme rainfall to come
The flood threat Thursday includes rounds of heavy, slow-moving rainfall on top of areas already soaked by 10 to 20 inches of it since Monday night. The threat of catastrophic flooding won’t ease up until Friday, as storms drop rain at 2 to 4 inches per hour.
• Through Thursday: The area most at risk of dangerous flash flood is nearly the same as the past two days. A Level 4 of 4 “high risk” of flooding rain has been posted for Thursday that includes Kerville and Uvalde, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Anywhere from Del Rio to Abilene and San Antonio could see additional flooding.
The ground is already soaked so it will take less rain to trigger serious flooding, with any rain more quickly turning to runoff instead of soaking into the ground. “Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely,” the National Weather Service said.
Flooding is likely on roads and in urban areas, and some homes could be inundated, the WPC warned. Creeks, streams and rivers will rise, with some going above flood stage.
Significant to catastrophic river flooding is possible in the Nueces, Frio, Medina, Pecos, Rio Grande and San Antonio river basins, the NWS said.
• Friday: Drenching storms will start to ease considerably on Friday, with a lower-level flood threat lingering mainly in the southwestern part of the state. Storms with flooding rainfall could be ongoing in the hardest-hit areas early in the morning, but the threat should shift west out of the area as the day progresses.
Why this keeps happening
Extreme rainfall events like this are becoming more common as planet-warming pollution drives temperatures higher, because warmer air holds more moisture – which storms can then wring out like a water-laden sponge in heavy, localized downpours.
The Hill Country is especially prone to flooding issues because its steep slopes, shallow soils and exposed bedrock repel heavy rain instead of absorbing it.
Fueling the threat is abundant Gulf moisture clashing with a stalled front and a pocket of energy in the upper atmosphere – a notorious recipe for slow-moving clusters of storms that can unleash 2 to 4 inches of rain an hour.
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