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Atlantic hurricane season is coming up. Here’s what NOAA predicts.

▶ Watch Video: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicted to be “below-average,” but don’t let your guard down

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and as coastal residents watch the forecast and wait to see what nature has in store, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing its outlook for the months ahead.

NOAA is predicting a below-average season this year, with eight to 14 named storms. Of them, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, agency officials announced Thursday.

They stressed that a below-average forecast should not keep people in hurricane-prone areas from taking it seriously and getting prepared.

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had Category 5 storms make landfall in the past during below average seasons.”

Jacobs and National Weather Service director Ken Graham praised technological advancements that, they said, will take storm preparedness to the next level.

“We’ve never been as prepared for hurricane season as we are now,” said Graham. NOAA encompasses the Weather Service, which directly handles hurricane forecasts.

NOAA estimates there’s currently a 55% chance that activity during hurricane season will be below-normal, a 35% chance it will be near-normal, and a 10% chance it will be above-normal, Jacobs added.

2026-nhc-forecast.png

Nikki Nolan/CBS News

A storm receives a name if its maximum sustained wind speeds reach at least 39 mph, and it becomes a hurricane if those winds climb to 74 mph. Hurricanes are classified as “major” when they reach wind speeds of at least 111 mph. That strength places them in Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale used to rate storm intensity.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking between August and October. That window tends to see the greatest number of storms develop, and a season’s most intense storms often develop in those months, too.

NOAA’s outlook will be updated several times throughout the summer to reflect any changes in the forecast over time.

How accurate was NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast?

NOAA’s hurricane predictions are generally fairly accurate, although not always exact. 

The agency’s 2025 outlook originally predicted last year’s hurricane season would include 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The forecast was adjusted slightly downward in August to predict 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. 

In the end, there were 13 named storms overall in 2025, including five hurricanes, four of which were major. 

Map shows the path of storms from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Map shows the path of storms from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

CBS News

That was a bit quieter than an average season, which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Impact of El Niño on 2026 hurricane season

The upcoming hurricane season may be influenced by the transition into El Niño, an oscillating climate pattern that affects weather conditions in the United States and has historically been associated with fewer Atlantic storms. 

However, as CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan wrote in a recent El Niño forecast, its emergence “does not necessarily mean that we won’t see any Atlantic hurricane systems — just statistically, there may be less than average.”

On the West Coast, the effect goes in the other direction: the warmer Pacific waters in an El Niño help enable tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific to develop and stay fully structured vertically. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said last week that there’s at least an 82% chance El Niño will arrive by July. Scientists are still monitoring conditions that will help them determine how strong it will be.

NOAA’s 2026 outlook is being released about six weeks after another major hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team. The CSU forecast predicted slightly less activity than usual in the Atlantic basin this year, with researchers estimating that the upcoming season would see 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Like NOAA, they will release updated forecasts periodically in the coming months.

2026-nhc-csu-forecast.png

Nikki Nolan/CBS News

2026 Atlantic hurricane season storm names

Every year, the World Meteorological Organization preemptively compiles a list of names that will be assigned to tropical storms and hurricanes that develop during the upcoming Atlantic season. The roster includes 21 names, each starting with a different letter of the alphabet. If more than 21 storms form in a single year, which happens occasionally, then a supplemental list of names will also be used.

Here’s the main list of names for 2026:

  • Arthur
  • Bertha
  • Cristobal
  • Dolly
  • Edouard
  • Fay
  • Gonzalo
  • Hanna
  • Isaias
  • Josephine
  • Kyle
  • Leah
  • Marco
  • Nana
  • Omar
  • Paulette
  • Rene
  • Sally
  • Teddy
  • Vicky
  • Wilfred

The debate over Jason Arday’s life continues – just as viciously – despite his death at 41

By CNN
(CNN) — Jason Arday, the youngest black professor in the University of Cambridge’s 817-year history, is dead. But the intense public debate over his life and work, and what it means for a society grappling with multiculturalism, is continuing - perhaps even more furiously.Arday’s death, on Friday aged 41, followed mounting pressure from the UK and international media probing every aspect of his life. The questioning spanned everything from his academic record, to claims he was mute until he was 11 and even his athleticism following his claim that he once ran 30 marathons in 35 days.His family blames a “campaign of sustained abuse” - one they say began the day he was appointed as a professor at Cambridge in February 2023 - for his death. They suggested those angered by suggestions his was a case of over-promotion “would leave no stone unturned in their quest to undermine him.”Others have gone further, calling the unrelenting interest in Arday “a pernicious public shaming” (London Mayor Sadiq Khan) and “a racist witch hunt” (Weyman Bennett, of Stand Up to Racism).Arday’s story has dominated headlines, with coverage spanning the political spectrum - and leaders from Prime Minister Andy Burnham down pressed for their opinions.Burnham, who has been in the top job for less than a month, said Arday’s death was “a tragedy on so many levels” and called for a “moment for reflection.”That moment has yet to come.The debate over Arday’s life and career, and what it means for society is continuing – just as ferociously if not more so – despite his death.Julia Hartley-Brewer, a presenter on TalkTV, an online channel owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News UK, on Saturday said: “The only person responsible for Jason Arday’s death is Jason Arday.”“He was a liar and a fraud who was rightly exposed for what he really was by academics and journalists who were simply doing their job,” she added.“This isn’t about right and left. It’s about right and wrong,” she said on X, less than 24 hours after his death was announced by the police, who said it was “unexpected but not suspicious.”The UK’s Spectator magazine, a right-leaning weekly, on Sunday said Arday was “both built up and destroyed by the ruthless machinery of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion).”“No one can deny it now: wokeness makes false gods and real tragedies,” its columnist Brendan O’Neill wrote.On the other side, Arday’s friends and supporters are calling on Burnham to commission a public inquiry into the role of the press in Arday’s death.“Enough is enough,” they said in a public letter that had attracted more than 34,000 signatures by Sunday afternoon.“There cannot be any doubt that Dr. Arday’s tragic death was the direct, foreseeable and foreseen result of press harassment. A significant element in that harassment was the colour of his skin. Self-regulation of the press has comprehensively failed.”How Jason Arday became a DEI “lightning rod”Arday, who leaves behind two children, was appointed professor of sociology of education at Cambridge on February 23, 2023 at the relatively young age of 37.The university’s press release at the time described him as a “renowned sociologist,” and said his appointment was “the latest chapter in a remarkable academic career, which began after he overcame illiteracy in his late teens.”The release described a boy diagnosed with a form of autism spectrum disorder at the age of three, and who was “unable to speak until he was 11, or to read or write until he was 18.”The university also pointed out he was “the youngest Black person ever appointed to a professorship at Cambridge,” and he intended to use that platform to “inspire more people from under-represented backgrounds into higher education.” At the time there were only five other black professors at Cambridge, and still just 1% of all professors in the UK are Black, according to the Society for Research into Higher Education.But his appointment also lit a fire among a group of academics - and others - who believe Cambridge and other universities and public bodies are striving too hard to increase their diversity.They alleged that Arday’s race played an outsized role in his appointment ahead of other leading international figures.Questions were raised about Arday’s research work. Nathan Cofnas, then a fellow Cambridge academic and self-defined “race realist,” published a Substack post claiming Arday had plagiarized a peer in his 2015 PhD thesis.Liverpool John Moores University, where Arday was awarded his PhD, found he made “honest and reasonable” errors, and dismissed the allegations of plagiarism. Arday admitted making citation errors and apologized, but denied lying.Cofnas went on national radio to describe Arday’s appointment as “DEI ideology” and claimed Arday was “not smart” like other Cambridge professors. Cofnas has published research claiming that race is linked to intelligence and that “under a colour-blind system” black people “would disappear from almost all high-profile positions outside of sports and entertainment.” Cofnas was sacked by Cambridge in the wake of controversy caused by his comments.Interest in Arday only grew. There have been more than 200 UK national newspaper articles about Arday in print over the past year, and hundreds more online. The Times of London alone has published more than 60 articles, according to NLA Clipshare.The case has also received widespread coverage in the US – including on CNN – where Trump has been assaulting DEI policies.Mounting scrutinyMedia interest expanded from questions about his academic record to claims he had run 600 miles in six days for charity; whether he had lied about being on a TV documentary series that aired decades before he was born; whether he was really mute as child; and his claim that a pig’s head had been sent to his home.Early in August, Arday resigned from his position at Cambridge saying “the relentless accusations, speculation and public commentary have taken a profound toll on me and on those I love.”Cambridge University launched an investigation into his appointment after “new information” emerged about his academic qualifications and honorary appointments.Cambridge’s Vice-Chancellor Professor Deborah Prentice said the university was “desperately saddened” to learn of Arday’s death.However, the university is facing questions about why it did not act sooner to investigate the claims, and whether it provided enough support to an academic experiencing such relentless public scrutiny.For months the university has been briefing journalists that its appointment system is rigorous and defendable, and that the campaign was targeted against a Black academic because of his race.A university spokesperson said: “Throughout his time at Cambridge, Jason received a range of support in relation to both his mental and physical wellbeing. This included the provision of counselling, advice, and security measures. Our support continued in the face of intense public and media scrutiny and after his resignation.”While Arday’s supporters have acknowledged there have been legitimate questions over his academic career, they see a press campaign blown out of proportion with tragic consequences.Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union, said Arday had been subjected to “a public and brutal takedown that unleashed a tirade of racism.”“I don’t believe this was ever simply about ‘professional conduct’ or ‘plagiarism’,” he said. “There is a profound difference between scrutiny and a sustained public campaign that turns an individual into a symbol of everything the right believes is wrong with DEI.”Professor Sir Simon Baron-Cohen, director of the University of Cambridge’s Autism Research Centre and a close friend of Arday, said “Jason was a kind and gentle” man who had been “used almost like a lightning rod to examine this policy of DEI.”“In the last 10 days, I’ve witnessed his mental health getting worse and worse, as the media didn’t stop ridiculing him, humiliating him, discrediting him,” he told the BBC. “He was being subjected to relentless scrutiny, including ridicule, discrediting absolutely every detail of his life, and he wasn’t coping with the loss of his career, the loss of his reputation, and he felt he couldn’t go on.”The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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