Thirty-year mortgage rates fell to 6.277% this week, a small drop from 6.298% the previous week, according to U.S. News data. Small dips like these should be expected in the coming months, especially if economic conditions hold steady.
In January, the U.S. economy added 130,000 nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. It’s common for broad economic concerns to sideline buyers, especially at a time when both mortgage rates and home prices are elevated. January’s jobs data, however, may spur an uptick in homebuying activity once consumers get a chance to absorb the news.
Meanwhile, for the week ending Feb. 6, mortgage applications decreased 0.3% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest survey.
“Mortgage applications were relatively flat over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, in a release. “Conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as borrowers held out for another drop in rates or shifted to other loan types.”
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Home Prices Rose Year Over Year in January
While many buyers have been holding out for lower home prices, so far, that hasn’t happened. In January, the median existing-home sale price rose 0.9% from a year prior to $396,800, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“Due to low supply, the median home price reached a new high for the month of January,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in a release. “Homeowners are in a financially comfortable position as a result. Since January 2020, a typical homeowner would have accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth.”
January’s 3.7-month supply of homes was an improvement from December, when NAR reported only a 3.5-month supply. That’s considerably below the five- to six-month supply typically needed for a balanced market.
[Read: Best Mortgage Refinance Lenders.]
Home Price Gains Could Stall in 2026
A big reason so many buyers have been sitting out of the market in recent months is that home prices continue to climb. But that could change this year.
J.P. Morgan Global Research sees U.S. home prices stalling at 0% in 2026 after nearly doubling over the past 10 years. It also expects fixed mortgage rates to stay elevated at above 6%. However, adjustable-rate mortgage rates could fall, improving affordability.
“Lower adjustable-rate mortgage rates and builder buydowns could be enough, along with a rising wealth effect, to shift demand higher while supply increases subside. Consequently, we expect home prices to stall at 0% nationally in 2026,” said John Sim, head of securitized products research at JPMorgan Chase, in the report.
Of course, a big factor in home affordability will be the job market. If hiring slows and fewer buyers are able to enter the market, home prices could start to come down. But if hiring continues to pick up broadly and the buyer pool expands, home prices could stay stubbornly elevated alongside mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Rates This Week: Rates Fall to 6.28% as Home Prices Climb originally appeared on usnews.com