It’s the most expensive U.S. Senate campaign the state of Maryland has ever seen, but a new poll suggests efforts to flip a seat from Democratic control may come up short.
Despite strong favorability ratings and stronger name recognition, Democratic candidate and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks leads Republican candidate and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan by a 48-39 margin, according to a new poll released Wednesday by the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) Institute of Politics.
“Both candidates are viewed favorably — more favorably than unfavorably,” said Mileah Kromer, the director of the UMBC Institute of Politics. “Forty-nine percent of Maryland likely voters have a favorable view of Angela Alsobrooks, 53% have a favorable view of former Gov. Larry Hogan.”
But Kromer said only 4% of voters don’t know how they feel about Hogan, while 19% are still unsure about Alsobrooks.
“I think that, in combination with the 20% of folks who said they could change their mind and the very small number now who are fully undecided, there is some room for fluctuation,” said Kromer. “But our poll does show that Angela Alsobrooks is up, and up outside of the margin of error.”
A Republican hasn’t represented Maryland in the U.S. Senate since the 1980s, and the voter registration in Maryland is roughly 2-1 in favor of Democrats. That appears to be playing a big role in the outcome. During the survey, after voters expressed a preference for one or the other, they were asked why they felt that way.
For Alsobrooks, 46% of voters backing the county executive “said something about how they liked her, or they had a positive view toward the Democratic Party or some of the Democratic policies,” said Kromer.
But 26% of her support comes by the nature of having the letter “D” next to her name on the ballot.
“They’re voting for Angela Alsobrooks because they do not want Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate,” said Kromer.
On the flip side, most Hogan voters are backing him because they like him so much, or because they have positive views of the GOP.
“It is not an unusual thing that people vote based on party identification, because party does tell you a lot of things about what an individual candidate would do in office, or what they would care about, or what the issues they would advance and support,” said Kromer.
“The big takeaway message is how important the control the Senate has become as an issue in this campaign,” she added.
The poll also finds Hogan is only running about 4 points better than former President Donald Trump, who trails Vice President Kamala Harris by a 57-35 point margin in Maryland. Another 5% said they’re voting for a third party, and 3% are undecided.
Also in November, Maryland voters will vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. The UMBC survey found voters support “Question 1” rather broadly, by a 69-21 percent margin in Maryland.
More than half (57%) of Maryland likely voters said abortion was a “critical issue” for them, Kromer said.
“While ‘Question 1,’ perhaps as a stand-alone, hasn’t gotten that much attention, the issue of reproductive rights and the issue of abortion certainly has,” Kromer said.
Most voters said the issue that mattered the most to them was the cost of everyday goods and services. Crime and public safety, as well as taxes and government spending, also rated high as issues voters cared about.
The institute polled 863 likely voters over the final full week of September. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%.
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