Md. could have lowered chance of Key Bridge collapse. NTSB says state didn't do recommended risk assessment

The National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday afternoon that the Maryland Transportation Authority never conducted a risk assessment on the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore that would have shown it was well over the established risk threshold for collapse due to a vessel strike. That threshold is set by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, according to the NTSB, which first published the vulnerability assessment calculation for new bridges in 1991. It noted in 1991 and reiterated in 2009 that existing bridges should be assessed to calculate the risk that a ship could strike them and cause a collapse. That exact risk came to fruition March 26, 2024, when a cargo ship struck the Key Bridge, causing it to collapse and killing six construction workers who were on the bridge at the time. NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said Thursday the MDTA never ran that calculation for the Key Bridge, and as of October 2024, still hadn’t done so for the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. “Had they ran the calculation on the Francis Scott Key Bridge, the MDTA would have been aware that the bridge was almost 30 times greater than the risk threshold AASHTO sets for critical, essential bridges — 30 times greater,” Homendy said. According to Homendy, the risk was also around 15 times greater for Pier 17, which is the pier the Dali struck.

“What’s frustrating is, not only did MDTA fail to conduct the vulnerability assessment on the Key Bridge, they did not provide, nor were they able to provide the NTSB with the data needed to conduct the assessment.” The data the Maryland Transit Authority could not provide included the speed of vessels passing under the bridge, vessel loading characteristics, water depths, environmental conditions, bridge geometry and capacity of the bridge piers. “We asked for that data — they didn’t have it. We had to develop that data ourselves,” Homendy said. Homendy said that, had the MDTA conducted the vulnerability assessment, it would have been able to take steps to reduce the risk of the collapse. The MDTA isn’t the only organization putting off the calculations. Homendy also listed 30 owners of 68 bridges across 19 states that need to perform vulnerability assessments to determine their risk of collapse from ship strikes. The NTSB is investigating all aspect of the crash and Key Bridge collapse, including what happened on the Dali, which lost power before it rammed into the bridge.

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